Today, I'm talking about March Madness futures picks and a hedging strategy to go along with it. Future bets can be very exciting and fun to watch play out. Last July, I placed two fairly large futures on the eventual World Series match-up. I knew the Cubs would win the NL Pennant, so I bet that they would play either the Blue Jays or Indians. My power ratings had these teams with the best chance to make it, and I could not see any other teams beating them in the playoffs in their respective leagues. Obviously, I ended up being right and had a nice pay day in October.
In March, you don’t have to wait as long. This is the best time for betting futures in any sport as the tournament is less than four weeks long, and it is just one game per round (not a series like MLB, NBA or NHL). Despite the quick turnaround, the NCAA Tournament still allows you to make future bets with long, valuable odds.
I placed a few futures bets when the bracket was released based on each team’s path and likelihood of advancing deep into the tournament. I was hoping to write this before the tournament started, but this is still a great example of how to hedge against future bets – as this was my main goal.
My March Madness Futures:
| Team | Odds | Risked | To Win |
| Kansas | +845 | 100 (1 unit) | 845 |
| Kentucky | +1100 | 100 | 1,100 |
| Arizona | +1200 | 100 | 1,200 |
| SMU | +5200 | 50 (0.5 units) | 2,600 |
| Michigan | +7000 | 50 | 3,500 |
| Notre Dame | +8000 | 50 | 4,000 |
| Mid. Tenn. State | +22,500 | 25 (0.25 units) | 5,625 |
For simplicity’s sake, I made a betting unit equal $100. Did I expect all of these teams to win the National Championship? Obviously no, but I did expect them to go far (Sweet 16 or deeper). The farther I thought they would advance, the more I bet on them. Turns out I was right on 4 of them, but that doesn’t mean I lost money on the other three (SMU, Notre Dame, & MTSU). I placed these bets with the full intention of hedging to guarantee a profit once I felt they had a tough chance to advance to the next round.
In the first round, SMU played USC. I had the Mustangs going quite far, but thought USC would make the game close. The spread was +7.5, so I made a regular one unit bet on the side and additionally placed 0.5 units on the USC moneyline, which was +290. USC of course had the upset win, so I lost my $50 from my futures bet. However, I won $145 on the USC moneyline ($50 at +290 odds), so net I won $95 – just shy of one unit. If SMU had won, I would have temporarily been down $50 from this moneyline bet. But I was betting against my theoretical $2,600 payout for my SMU future, so really I would still have $2,550 to “work with” in future rounds if SMU had won. In the end, I made $95 from this future.
I had a similar situation for Notre Dame in the first and second rounds. I didn’t think Notre Dame would lose, but I thought Princeton would certainly keep the game within the 7 point spread. I bet 1 unit on Princeton (+7) which of course hit, so I already made back the 0.5 units I had on the Notre Dame future bet, plus another 0.5 units. Going into ND’s game against West Virginia, I thought the Mountaineers had a good chance to win. With $4,000 to work with on the Notre Dame future, I bet 2 units on the WVU moneyline. Since it was -160, I had to lay $320 to win $200. This of course hit as well, so I lost $50 on the future bet and a theoretical $4,000 payout had they won it all. However, I came out ahead 2.5 units or $250 (1 unit from Princeton cover + 2 unit from WVU win – 0.5 units from ND future).
Middle Tennessee State was a little different, but worked out the same. Being a Big Ten fan, I knew MTSU would have no problem with Minnesota. The Gophers were over-seeded and did not match-up well. Because of this, I just let my MTSU future ride the first round. They faced Butler next, who I was impressed with after watching their first-round game. The public was also all over Middle Tennessee and were the trendy upset pick of the tournament. Knowing this, not expecting them to get past UNC in the Sweet 16, and having $5,625 to play with, I bet 2 units on Butler to win at -160 (or $320 to win $200). Butler ended up winning, so I won $200 but lost $25 from the future bet, so I netted $175 (1.75 units).
I am currently up just over 5 units so far, and have four futures remaining – Kansas, Kentucky, Arizona, and Michigan. I have not touched (i.e. hedged against) Kansas or Kentucky yet, but I did place half unit bets on Louisville against Michigan and St. Mary’s against Arizona in the second round. Since Louisville was the favorite at -170, I bet $85 to win $50 and break even on my Michigan future had they lost. St. Mary’s was an underdog at +210, so I only bet $50 to win $105. If Arizona had lost, I would have lost $100 on my future for them but won $105 for the game, netting me a big payday of $5. Luckily, both futures advanced and I still have $3,415 to work with for Michigan and $1,150 for Arizona.
These teams theoretically have 4 games left if they advance to the National Championship, so it’s important to plan out my future hedges. To do this, I need to project not only who they will play in each game, but what the odds will be. Each of my four teams are a favorite or pick in its Sweet 16 game, which makes hedging easier for this round as I don’t need to bet on a big favorite to do so. I’ll write an article for the remaining rounds to give updates on all this, but for simplicity sake I’ll just focus on the Sweet 16 here.
I don’t expect Xavier to be much of a problem for Arizona, but the other match-ups are quite interesting. Here is my plan for each game:
| Match-up | Moneyline Odds | Bet Amount | To Win | Future $ Remaining |
| Michigan vs. Oregon | Oregon +100 | $250 | $250 | $3,415 |
| Kansas vs. Purdue | Purdue +180 | $110 | $198 | $845 |
| Arizona vs. Xavier | Xavier +280 | $50 | $140 | $1,150 |
| Kentucky vs. UCLA | UCLA -110 | $110 | $100 | $1,100 |
Michigan vs. Oregon
Despite losing Chris Boucher due to injury in the Pac-12 tournament, the Ducks have looked great. This is going to be a great game and I can see either team winning, so I placed 2.5 units ($250) on Oregon to win. This leaves me with over $3,000 to work with if Michigan advances, which helps because they will most likely be underdogs in future rounds. If Michigan does lose, I win $250 from the game – but am down $50 from the future bet and $85 from the Louisville bet. Overall, I would be up $115 or 1.15 units.
Kansas vs. Purdue
This is another great match-up, and I can see an undersized Kansas team struggling against Purdue’s bigs in Swanigan and Haas. Because of that, I want to guarantee a small profit here. I’m betting 1.1 units ($110) on Purdue to either come out with $98 ($198 - $100 future bet) or have $735 left of potential winnings. If Kansas advances, they will likely be the favorite for their remaining games which will make hedging easier. If doing something similar, be sure to keep track of your losses from hedging as I am.
Arizona vs. Xavier
As I said, Arizona should win without much effort. With Xavier at +280 to win, I don’t need to risk much to break even or make a small profit. Since I’m very confident in Arizona, I am only risking a half unit ($50) to win $140 and ensure a $40 profit if the Wildcats were to lose ($140 - $100 future bet). If Arizona wins as expected, I have $1,100 left of potential winnings to work with for three more games.
Kentucky vs. UCLA
If you like offense, be sure to watch this fast-paced game. I ultimately believe Kentucky will win as UCLA has zero defense, but UCLA always has potential to put up 100 points. Because of this, I’m putting $110 to win $100 if UCLA prevails. This makes me breakeven after losing the $100 from my Kentucky future wager, or it leaves me with $990 to work with. Kentucky will likely be small underdogs to North Carolina next round, so I have plenty left to guarantee a profit here as well.
So that’s my plan for Thursday and Friday. I’ll try to write a quick update Friday night or Saturday morning with my plans for the Elite Eight (assuming one or more of my futures advance). As you can see, betting futures can be very profitable, as long as you do it right. Even if all my teams lose that I have futures on, I still win about 8 units ($800) overall with the strategy above. To do the same, you need to not only understand the basics of hedging, but also track everything to ensure you don’t over-hedge and guarantee a loss.
If you have any futures for the NCAA Tournament and have a question about what to do with it, feel free to ask me a question. You can email me at Stephen@FastBreakBets.com or DM on Twitter!