We’re down to the Elite Eight. In my previous article, I went over the March Madness futures picks I had placed and the strategy I was going to employ. This will be a much shorter article as I want to post this as soon as possible. As I mentioned last week, I made the following futures bets before the tournament started:
| Team | Odds | Risked | To Win |
| Kansas | +845 | 100 (1 unit) | 845 |
| Kentucky | +1100 | 100 | 1,100 |
| Arizona | +1200 | 100 | 1,200 |
| SMU | +5200 | 50 (0.5 units) | 2,600 |
| Michigan | +7000 | 50 | 3,500 |
| Notre Dame | +8000 | 50 | 4,000 |
| Mid. Tenn. State | +22,500 | 25 (0.25 units) | 5,625 |
Of course, I didn’t expect all these teams to win the National Championship. I spaced out these bets among the four different regions, having no more than two in each. This ensured that these would not “cannibalize” each other and that I had better opportunities to hedge. From my original seven, I had four teams advance to the Sweet 16, but still profited from the three other teams. Since I already went into detail about my previous hedges in the last article, I will only cover the hedging I did for the Sweet 16 and my plan for the Elite Eight. Here is a rundown of how I have done so far:
| Team | Odds | Risked | To Win | Status | Hedge Bets | Total Profit |
| Kansas | +845 | 100 (1 unit) | 845 | Elite Eight | -110 | Still playing |
| Kentucky | +1100 | 100 | 1,100 | Elite Eight | -110 | Still playing |
| Arizona | +1200 | 100 | 1,200 | Lost in Sweet 16 | +100 | 0 |
| SMU | +5200 | 50 (0.5 units) | 2,600 | Lost in 1st Round | +145 | +95 |
| Michigan | +7000 | 50 | 3,500 | Lost in Sweet 16 | +165 | +115 |
| Notre Dame | +8000 | 50 | 4,000 | Lost in 2nd Round | +200 | +150 |
| MTSU | +22,500 | 25 (0.25 units) | 5,625 | Lost in 2nd Round | +200 | +175 |
Sweet 16 Review
Of the four teams I still had alive (Kansas, Kentucky, Arizona, Michigan), only two made it out of the Sweet 16. I (along with just about everyone else) did not expect Arizona to lose to Xavier. That was a great game to watch, but it unfortunately knocked out one of my bigger future bets. Luckily, I was still able to breakeven. Xavier’s moneyline rose to +300 on Thursday, so the half unit ($50) bet I planned to make now won me $150. I had bet $50 on St. Mary’s in the second round as another hedge, so I ended up breaking even with Xavier winning (+$150 Xavier - $50 St. Mary’s loss - $100 Arizona futures bet).
Michigan worked out much better, as I thought Oregon had a good chance to win. I still had a lot to “work with” on Michigan ($3,415) as I had only hedged $85 against them last round, so I bet 2.5 units ($250) on Oregon at even odds. Subtract the $85 from the last round and the $50 future, and I came out ahead $115.
Elite Eight Strategy
This just leaves me with Kansas and Kentucky. I have made about one unit form each future so far, and I want to make sure I have about 1-2 units left to win if either team wins the championship. Luckily, these two teams would play each other if they both win their Elite Eight game. This allows me to not have to bet against either of them, and just ride the winner to the National Championship – if this best-case scenario were to happen. However, both are playing teams I believe they can lose to this round, so I want to eliminate the chance of a loss if that were to happen. Here is the plan for each:
| Match-up | Moneyline Odds | Bet Amount | To Win | Future $ Remaining |
| Kansas vs. Oregon | Oregon +300 | $110 | $330 | $735 |
| Kentucky vs. UNC | UNC -145 | $320 | $220 | $990 |
Kansas vs. Oregon
Kansas plays Oregon today and the Jayhawks are currently a 7 point favorite, which makes hedging very easy. Oregon’s moneyline (odds to win the game outright) is currently at +300, so $100 wins $300. To date, I have bet $110 against Kansas, so I want to make that back plus the $100 on the Kansas future if they were to lose. With that in mind, I will bet $110 on Oregon to win the game. If the Ducks do win, I win $330 and make $120 overall. If Oregon loses, I am “down” $220; but still have $625 to work with from the initial $845 Kansas future.
Kentucky vs. North Carolina
Kentucky, on the other hand, is a little harder to hedge this round. They are currently a 2.5-point underdog to North Carolina, and so I would need to bet $145 on North Carolina to win $100 (UNC’s moneyline is currently -145). In this instance, I just want to break even if North Carolina wins. I predicted this match-up and still expect Kentucky to win, but I want to limit my downside to zero. I am “down” $110 on Kentucky from my previous hedge on UCLA, so I need to make that plus the $100 on the Kentucky future. To win $220 from North Carolina, I need to bet $320. If Kentucky wins, I am temporarily down $430 ($320+$110), but have $670 to work with out of the original $1100 potential winnings.
Things are looking good so far, and hope the Jayhawks and Wildcats can advance to Glendale for the Final Four. This has been a very exciting tournament so far, and adding these future bets into the mix just makes it even more interesting. As you can see, those hedges start to add up if your initial future keeps winning. That is why it is extremely important to be organized and have a plan in place ahead of time in order to guarantee a profit.
If you have any futures for the NCAA Tournament and have a question about what to do with it, feel free to ask me a question. You can email me at Stephen@FastBreakBets.com or DM on Twitter!