With the NBA's "half-way" point of the season upon us, I thought it would be a good time to look back on the performance of my NBA picks. So far, I am on pace for my best season since I started using my model. There has certainly been both ups and downs throughout just like any other season, but the wins greatly outweigh the losses.
Here are my results up to this point:
I am going to break this down by section based on the type of bets my model predicts. My system in a nutshell is that I separate each team's performance based on their rest. If they played the night before, the following game is classified as a back-to-back and those scores are placed into a different data set (right sections). If they had the previous day off, the game is scored normally (left sections) You can learn more about my system here.
Against the Spread (Grade: A-)
Overall, my performance against the spread (ATS) has been solid. I started red hot for the first couple months and really cashed in, winning over 57% and almost 23 betting units. One of the reasons was because my model recognized early that the East has gotten much stronger. Playing teams like Boston, Detroit, Charlotte, and even Philadelphia were solid ATS. Secondly, the lower teams in the West did well for me, such as Minnesota, Denver, and Portland. This is a great example as to why you need to have some kind of system. It removes your bias towards teams that your gut might otherwise stay away from. Lastly, my system was not afraid to lay the points with Golden State and San Antonio. These two have been blowing by everyone else. I knew squares will blindly bet any spread posted for these teams, so it was important to bet them as early as possible before the line got too high (still true).
My ATS picks definitely cooled off the past month, just barely staying above even. Injuries, mid-season coach firings, and overall exhaustion definitely played a part. It's harder to quantify the impacts of these things, and unfortunately my model admittedly takes longer to adjust for this. No matter the reason though, losing stretches like this happen to every handicapper, and the ones that remain disciplined are the ones that survive. This definitely helped me stay afloat and kept me at even during the last month, rather than trying to "win back" my losses by over-betting.
Against the Spread: Back-to-Back (Grade: A)
My back-to-back spread picks started just as hot. This part of my system hit at 60% the first two months of the season, by far the best it has ever done. I attribute its success to two main themes - the NBA's improved efforts to reduce the amount of back-to-backs in the schedule, and overall value offered for road teams playing on a back-to-back. I believe the two are related and compounded my success. Historically, it was smart to fade teams playing a back-to-back since their performance generally dwindles on the second night (especially on the road). This still remains true to a degree, but thanks to the NBA finally realizing it should have its best product on the court every night, this effect has noticeably been reduced when betting the spread. My system recognized that non-rested teams were still being booked like the past, and it picked up a solid number of wins early on.
Like my regular spread betting picks, the back-to-backs under-performed the last month. Fatigue obviously played a part, so much so that I stopped betting spread back-to-backs all together the last week before the All-Star break. I noticed teams were much more sluggish than usual and didn't want to risk it. It turned out being the right decision, as I would've added three more losses to my already poor 3-6 record in February. The week off for the All-Star Break should help get this system back to its winning ways. These picks have gone 70-52 over the past three seasons after the break, winning at an astounding 57.4% rate.
Over/Under Totals (Grade: B)
Going along with my spread picks, my system's totals outperformed its previous results greatly to start the season. The Over/Under plays got up to 40-29 by New Year's, but unfortunately came crashing down in January. Each season seems to have a rough month for the totals, and like last year January was the one. The model went 9-17 during that time, taking out almost all the winnings made from the previous two months totals plays. Luckily, we had a decent bounce back winning 8 of 15 in February before the break to get some of it back.
The good news is that historically, the worst is behind us and post-All-Star Break is where this system really makes a killing. My totals have gone 58-43 after the traditional week off, winning 12.24 units overall. I expect this season to be no different as my model has a better idea of how teams will perform down the stretch.
Over/Under Totals: Back-to-Back (Grade: A+)
Finally, this has been my bread and butter this season. Overall, my regular spread picks have won more (24.2 vs. 15.3 units), but my B2B Totals have been much more consistent. In fact, they have only gotten better as the season has progressed. This makes sense as the sample size starts out smaller than the other picks data, especially since the NBA has reduced the number of back-to-backs. Nonetheless, I couldn't be happier with this portion of my system. It started even in November at 10-10, and since then has taken off by winning 62% of plays. I don't expect to keep winning at this crazy rate, but it should continue to add to my bankroll. These B2B Totals picks have won just under 55% the past three seasons after the All-Star Break.
So there you have it. I am definitely having my best season as an NBA handicapper, and I'm glad that subscribers have been able to cash in with me. I really do believe I have the best and most transparent NBA picks on the web, and if you're not a part of it you have clearly been missing out! If you want in on these winning bets, then click here now to take advantage of my All-Star Break discount. And if this report didn't convince you enough - remember that I have a completely risk-free guarantee: If my picks don't win you money, then I will refund your subscription. It doesn't get better than that.
Best of luck,
Stephen