A month is in the books for my new MLB betting model, and all I can say is, “WOW!” When I first put this betting system together in June, I was not sure how it was going to turn out. I knew what stats I wanted to incorporate and a rough idea how much to weigh each one, but I am very excited about its current potential. My model takes into account basic and advanced stats for the starting pitching, offense, and bullpen of each team both for the entire season and their most recent games. It then calculates the probability of each team winning the game.

As most of you may know, betting odds can be translated into probability percentages. After all, odds are really just a fancy way of implying the probability of winning a bet. Once I have a team’s winning probability from my model, I then compare it to their moneyline odds’ implied probability. My model calculates the implied probability automatically once I enter each game’s odds, but below is a table showing the implied probability of different odds.

When comparing the odds’ implied probability to my projected probability, I am simply looking for value. This means my projected probability needs to be greater than what the odds imply. I’ll use my picks from the other night as an example:

After I input the day’s schedule, pitching match-ups, and moneyline odds, everything else is calculated for me. I can see a side by side comparison of the implied and projected probabilities for each team, and my model tells me which teams are currently offering value. I wrote my model so that each bet needs to have at least 2% of value, so on this day I had the Cleveland Indians (6.17% value), the Chicago Cubs (4.59% value), the Washington Nationals (4.75%), and so on as my plays.

*Currently, I am betting one unit regardless of the amount of value shown; but this is definitely something I intend to research in the near future.

*If you are wondering why there are blank “Pick” boxes, it is because the juice/vig causes neither team to have any value. Both team’s “Vegas” odds are greater than my projected probabilities for these games because of this.

Just as my NBA model, this new MLB model is high volume betting. The number of plays in the graphic above from August 6 is not unusual – I often have 7-10 bets when all 30 teams are playing. With that in mind, my bet unit is very small at 1% of my bankroll. If you intend on tailing my picks, I highly suggest you do the same. I’m bound to have a bad day just like anyone else, so losing 3 or 4 units every now and then is always a possibility.

After the first 31 days of my model though, the results were staggering. I could not believe the success I had, and I am in the process of fine tuning my model even more. Below are my results from July…

First, it is quite obvious that almost all (94.48%) of my units won came from betting underdogs. I would not be surprised that a majority of my winnings came from underdog bets, but it is pretty astonishing that almost all of my profits did. This tells me two things, neither of which are stunning revelations – underdogs are being underpriced, and my betting system is more profitable betting underdogs. As the saying goes, no one ever got rich betting favorites. This certainly holds true when betting MLB.

This is a great example why all sports bettors need to not only keep track of their bets, but to do so in an organized way so that you can go back and analyze your system. Luckily, I love using Excel so it is fairly easy for me to evaluate my results. After doing so for July, I know to look for ways to take advantage of betting underdogs more frequently, if not exclusively, with my system. I’ll also be looking into which teams are over- or under-valued, which I plan to write about in the near future.

I hope this article gave you a better idea about my model, how I decide on my picks, and what is driving my success. If you have a question about anything that I discussed here, or sports betting in general, feel free to ask me a question! And if you want to start betting these winning MLB picks, I am offering them completely free for the entire season. I post them daily here, as well as on Facebook and Twitter. Lastly, be sure to subscribe to my blog to receive even more betting tips and strategies to help you become a more profitable sports bettor.

Best of luck,

Stephen