Happy March Madness!
It’s finally here. Teams have been selected and the bracket is set. As was said by the Selection Committee chair Mark Hollis – this is the most competitive tournament we have ever seen. And the match-ups sure support this. Aside from the #8 vs. #9 seed coin flips, games like Creighton/Rhode Island, Michigan/Oklahoma State, Minnesota/Middle Tennessee State, and Dayton/Wichita State are going to be extremely hard to pick. As usual, you may be better off not knowing anything about these teams, but I’ll give it a shot anyways.
I’ll be releasing my breakdowns for each region this week along with a separate Final Four post, so be sure to check back regularly or follow me on Twitter to stay updated. First up…
EAST REGION – New York, NY (Winner in bold)
FIRST ROUND
#1 Villanova vs. #16 Mount St. Mary’s/New Orleans (Buffalo, NY)
Villanova wins. No explanation needed.
#8 Wisconsin vs. #9 Virginia Tech (Buffalo, NY)
I have to go with the Badgers here. They stumbled all season and never reached their full potential, until the Big Ten Tournament came along. Granted, they played some mediocre teams to get to the championship game (Indiana, Northwestern), but they played Michigan tough and were in it just about the whole game. Virginia Tech had a decent season and have some impressive wins in the ACC, but Wisconsin is really clicking and Greg Gard will get Bucky to the next round.
#5 Virginia vs. #12 UNC Wilmington (Orlando, FL)
This is a very interesting match-up between two completely different teams. Virginia is the slowest team in the nation and grinds out wins with defense, while UNC Wilmington has a run and gun offense that is the 12th fastest in the tournament. If you recall, UNC Wilmington nearly knocked off fourth seeded Duke last year in the first round, and many players return with that experience for the Seahawks. I can certainly see UNC Wilmington covering the 8.5 point spread with Virginia trying to limit possessions, but I think Virginia’s D will be too much for them and will nearly miss another upset against an ACC team.
#4 Florida vs. #13 East Tennessee State (Orlando, FL)
If this game wasn’t in Orlando, I would like ETSU here. Both teams like to play fast, and East Tennessee State has the seventh oldest team in the country. That veteran leadership will help a ton, and is why I think ETSU can cover the 10-point spread. However, Florida is a better team and will have plenty of fan support. I think the Gators win a close one here.
#6 SMU vs. #11 Providence/USC (Tulsa, OK)
I think Providence wins… against USC. I would have liked them to win in the first round if they had gotten a better draw, but SMU is really, really good. They have a great coach in Tim Jankovich, and this team simply knows how to win. They have won 2 of the last 3 AAC titles, and would have won it last year if they had not been banned from postseason play for NCAA violations. Take the Ponies.
#3 Baylor vs. #14 New Mexico State (Tulsa, OK)
I don’t expect this to be much of a contest. Baylor certainly faded down the stretch losing 6 of their last 11, but you can’t say they had an easy schedule playing in the stacked Big 12. They still have the talent to beat just about anyone. And for New Mexico State, they’ve lost eight straight opening round games in the Big Dance. I’m on Baylor here.
#7 South Carolina vs. #10 Marquette (Greenville, SC)
If SMU being placed in Tulsa didn’t catch your eye, this one surely should. It’s well known and part of the selection committee’s procedures to award top seeds with nearby venues being used for the tournament. However, doing this for lower seeds such as South Carolina (and mis-seeding teams to achieve this) says more than that. We have quite a few examples of this, but it’s evident school location (and therefore ticket sales) were a factor in the selection process this year. As for this match-up, these are fairly even teams and neither having much of an edge momentum wise. With Greenville being a 30 minute drive from Columbia, I expect a huge edge for the Gamecocks both for travel and fan support. South Carolina wins this one.
#2 Duke vs. #15 Troy (Greenville, SC)
Troy sneaks into the dance having unexpectedly winning the Sun Belt Conference as the 7th seed by upsetting regular season champion UT-Arlington. As for Duke, they are arguably the hottest team in the country having won 4 games in 4 nights to win the ACC conference title. The Blue Devils certainly like to make things interesting in the first round (including a few shocking losses in 2007, 2012 & 2014), but I think they take care of business here. A win over Troy should be a cake walk (emphasis on SHOULD).
SECOND ROUND
#1 Villanova vs. #8 Wisconsin (Buffalo, NY)
As much as I want to pick the Badgers here, I can’t pick against Jay Wright and the defending National Champs. Coach Wright finally removed the stigma that he can’t win in March, and I say that remains true here. Villanova earned the number one overall seed for good reason, and I think they’re performance on both sides of the ball will be too much for Wisconsin.
#4 Florida vs. #5 Virginia (Orlando, FL)
Finally, an upset! This region hasn’t been sexy pick-wise, but this region is supposed to be the easiest with the top overall seed. Anyways, I’m going with Virginia here despite the game being in Orlando. There will be plenty of Gator support, but Virginia’s defense is too good to lose this early. You know what they say – defense travels. Although power ratings like Florida, I never felt they were THAT good; especially coming out of the weak SEC. Virginia never hit their stride in ACC play, but they should be able to take care of Florida.
#3 Baylor vs. #6 SMU (Tulsa, OK)
That’s right, another upset. As I said earlier, Baylor faded big time towards the end of the season. Even when they were playing well though, I never understood why they were a top ranked team. Although SMU doesn’t have much depth, they have plenty of firepower. Number suggest this will be an even, high-scoring match-up, but I’ll take SMU here to pull off the small upset and advance.
#2 Duke vs. #7 South Carolina (Greenville, SC)
Although this game is practically in the Gamecocks’ backyard, Duke isn’t too far away either and should have plenty of support in the stands. The Blue Devils are easily the superior team here, and again should have no trouble eliminating South Carolina.
SWEET SIXTEEN (Regional Semi-Finals)
#1 Villanova vs. #5 Virginia (New York, NY)
Virginia certainly has an elite defense, but Villanova has a great one too; along with an even better offense. The Cavaliers will try to slow this game down as best they can, but Villanova ranks top-five nationally in offensive efficiency, effective field goal percentage, 2-point field goal percentage and free throw percentage. Virginia’s defense won’t be able to stop that. Villanova moves on.
#2 Duke vs. #6 SMU (New York, NY)
Everyone is so high on Duke, and that makes me nervous. They quickly became the most bet to win the whole tournament once futures were released at many sportsbooks, driving their price all the day down to 5:1 odds. That implies a 20% chance to win the title. Winning 4 games in 4 nights looks great, but it takes its toll.
SMU is my dark horse in this tournament, and for good reason. The Mustangs have the 11th most efficient offense and are 29th defensively per KenPom. They also shoot 40.3 percent from 3-point range while holding opponents to 32.7 percent. Oh, and they’ve won 16 straight. The only hesitation I have is that SMU forward Semi Ojeleye transferred from Duke, which may be added motivation for the Blue Devils. He’s a stud though, and probably wants to stick it to his old team as well. I’m riding the Mustangs to the Elite Eight.
ELITE EIGHT (Regional Finals)
#1 Villanova vs. #6 SMU (New York, NY)
This is going to be one hell of a game. The second-best offense (Villanova) going up against the 11th best (SMU). These teams have almost identical tempo ratings, so there won’t be much of a battle to slow down or speed up the pace. Ultimately, that falls in Villanova’s favor as the Wildcats’ more talented players won’t be thrown off their game. They also have the coaching edge with veteran head coach Jay Wright going against Tim Jankovich. It should be a very fun game to watch, but Villanova cuts down the nets and advances to their second straight Final Four.