Happy March Madness!
It’s finally here. Teams have been selected and the bracket is set. As was said by the Selection Committee chair Mark Hollis – this is the most competitive tournament we have ever seen. And the match-ups sure support this. Aside from the #8 vs. #9 seed coin flips, games like Creighton/Rhode Island, Michigan/Oklahoma State, Minnesota/Middle Tennessee State, and Dayton/Wichita State are going to be extremely hard to pick. As usual, you may be better off not knowing anything about these teams, but I’ll give it a shot anyways.
I’ll be releasing my breakdowns for each region this week along with a separate Final Four post, so be sure to check back regularly or follow me on Twitter to stay updated. Next up…
WEST REGION – San Jose, CA (Winners in Bold)
FIRST ROUND
#1 Gonzaga vs. #16 South Dakota State (Salt Lake City, UT)
Gonzaga wins. No explanation needed.
#8 Northwestern vs. #9 Vanderbilt (Salt Lake City, UT)
As a Big Ten fan, I am happy for Northwestern for making the tournament for the first time. However, they lucked out in two ways – the Big Ten was awful this year, and the field of bubble teams was equally weak. I’m an Illinois alum and we were terrible this year, yet we beat Northwestern twice. Meanwhile, Vanderbilt finished the season strong winning 8 of 11, including two wins over #4 seed Florida twice in six days. Northwestern has lost 6 of their last 11. I’ll take the Commodores here.
#5 Notre Dame vs. #12 Princeton (Buffalo, NY)
This is another interesting 5/12 match-up. Although I think Notre Dame ultimately wins, Princeton will certainly make it difficult. Both teams play slower, so if Princeton can hit their 3’s (they shoot a lot of them) they’ll keep it close. The Ivy League champs certainly made things interesting almost losing to Penn in the conference’s first ever tournament, but they took care of business against Yale in the finals. Meanwhile, Notre Dame made it to the ACC finals only to lose to Duke. I was very impressed with the Irish and think they’ll carry that momentum into Buffalo for a win.
#4 West Virginia vs. #13 Bucknell (Buffalo, NY)
Bucknell comes off winning the Patriot League regular and postseason championship, while West Virginia lost in the Big 12 final to Iowa State. Bucknell is undersized, which may prove vulnerable to the full-court pressure of Press Virginia (I wish I thought of that). With the Mountaineers’ last three losses coming to ranked opponents, while Bucknell’s last three were against Loyola (MD) and Lehigh (twice), West Virginia should have no problem coming away with the victory.
#6 Maryland vs. #11 Xavier (Orlando, FL)
This one is tough, it’s hard to choose between two bad teams. Maryland has been overrated all season, and Xavier stumbled into March losing 7 of their last 10 (including a 6 game losing streak in February). However, Xavier’s six straight losses came against good teams all in the tournament, and had a nice run in the Big East tournament making it to the semi-finals before losing to Creighton by 3. Meanwhile, Maryland started the year hot at 20-2 including two big wins against Kansas State and Oklahoma State. Since then though, they finished out the season 4-6, including four losses at home. They still lucked into the 3 seed in the Big Ten tournament thanks to a down year for the conference, and were the de-facto home team in Washington D.C. Despite this, they were one and done losing once again to Northwestern. Long story short, Xavier wins this game.
#3 Florida State vs. #14 Florida Gulf-Coast (Orlando, FL)
What a coincidence, two Florida teams are selected to play each other in Orlando… and on the same day Florida plays there! While the NCAA rakes in the cash selling out the Amway Center, these two electric teams will square off for a chance to advance. Everyone will remember Dunk City’s 2013 historic run to the Sweet 16 as a 15 seed, but I’m afraid they don’t have the same fate this year. Florida State has too much depth and will be able to compete against Florida Dunk Coast’s athletic, physical play.
#7 Saint Mary’s vs. #10 VCU (Salt Lake City, UT)
This is one of many B.S. pairings thanks to the Selection Committee. Instead of putting these Mid-Majors against traditional Power Five teams, they put them together to lessen the chance of a deep run for smaller schools. It’s total crap, and another example of the NCAA’s money grab. Anyways, this is another tough choice – luckily their both good teams though. Saint Mary’s deservedly received an at-large bid after finishing behind Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference, and VCU made a great run to the Atlantic 10 championship before losing to Rhode Island. Unfortunately both can’t move on, so I’m picking Saint Mary’s. VCU looked shaky for most of the A-10 championship and had to come back against Richmond in the semi-finals. This isn't the same VCU team as most remember. Although the competition in the WCC is lower, the Gaels are still an outstanding team and advance.
#2 Arizona vs. #15 North Dakota (Salt Lake City, UT)
North Dakota had a great season winning the Big Sky Conference, but it ends here. Arizona is extremely talented and probably should have been a #1 seed. The NCAA will sell more tickets having them in Salt Lake City and San Jose then Greenville and Memphis though, so they are the West’s #2 seed instead. Regardless, they will have no problem getting through to the next round.
SECOND ROUND
#1 Gonzaga vs. #8 Vanderbilt (Salt Lake City, UT)
Whether the Bulldogs play Vandy or Northwestern, they will demolish either team. And that’s all I have to say about that.
#4 West Virginia vs. #5 Notre Dame (Buffalo, NY)
West Virginia has looked beatable as of late, and Notre Dame matches up well against them. The Irish are the best free throw shooting team in the country and don’t turn the ball over much, so they shouldn’t have much trouble getting around the Mountaineers’ press defense. And when West Virginia, is off, they look absolutely horrible. It’ll be close, but Notre Dame should pull this one out.
#3 Florida State vs. #11 Xavier (Orlando, FL)
Superior talent, easy travel, a stadium full of your fans, and a deep bench going against an injured team. Florida State is totally over-seeded, but got an easy draw. Give me the Seminoles.
#2 Arizona vs. #7 Saint Mary’s (Salt Lake City, UT)
How fun would it be to have Saint Mary’s advance to the Sweet Sixteen and play 50 miles south of campus in San Jose? How crazy would it be if they advance to the Elite Eight and face off against Gonzaga for a trip to the Final Four?! That place would be absolutely rocking. Unfortunately, it’s not going to happen. The Gaels lost to Gonzaga three times this season, and Arizona is looking even better. The Wildcats sadly move on to San Jose.
SWEET SIXTEEN (Regional Semi-Finals)
#1 Gonzaga vs. #5 Notre Dame (San Jose, CA)
This will be a great game and I would love to call the upset here, but I think Gonzaga overpowers Notre Dame. San Jose will be packed with Bulldog fans (Spokane to San Jose flights are starting to sell out), and despite the talent gap between the ACC and WCC, Gonzaga is still the better team. They played really well against good teams during non-conference play (such as Florida, Iowa State and Arizona) and I would put Notre Dame slightly under those teams. Gonzaga advances to the Elite Eight.
#2 Arizona vs. #3 Florida State (San Jose, CA)
These teams are fairly identical with FSU playing with a bit more tempo, but Arizona has much better talent. After losing to Gonzaga at the Staples Center on December 3, the Wildcats won 24 of 26 to close out the season. Their two losses in that span were at Oregon and at home against UCLA; who finished second and third in the Pac-12, respectively. As for the Seminoles, they started the season 18-2 and 6-1 in ACC play, but finished conference play 6-5 with no wins against high-caliber teams. Florida State certainly had an easy path to the Sweet 16, but their run ends here in San Jose against Arizona.
ELITE EIGHT (Regional Finals)
#1 Gonzaga vs. #2 Arizona (San Jose, CA)
As I just mentioned, these teams met on December 3 at the Staples Center for the inaugural Hoophall LA. For those that don’t know, this has become quite the rivalry. With the last five meetings being decided by five points or less and all won by Arizona, Gonzaga came out with the win 69-62. Because of this, revenge becomes a factor to add to the huge stakes of this game. As good as Gonzaga is, I think the more tested Arizona wins the rematch in San Jose. Once again, a Pac-12 team destroys the National Title hopes of the Bulldogs in the Bay Area, and sends them back to Heartbreak City.