Happy March Madness!
It’s finally here. Teams have been selected and the bracket is set. As was said by the Selection Committee chair Mark Hollis – this is the most competitive tournament we have ever seen. And the match-ups sure support this. Aside from the #8 vs. #9 seed coin flips, games like Creighton/Rhode Island, Michigan/Oklahoma State, Minnesota/Middle Tennessee State, and Dayton/Wichita State are going to be extremely hard to pick. As usual, you may be better off not knowing anything about these teams, but I’ll give it a shot anyways.
I’ll be releasing my breakdowns for each region this week along with a separate Final Four post, so be sure to check back regularly or follow me on Twitter to stay updated. Next up…
MIDWEST REGION – Kansas City, KS (Winner in bold)
FIRST ROUND
#1 Kansas vs. #16 NC Central/UC Davis (Tulsa, OK)
Like Duke, Kansas has had some first round disappointments… but the Jayhawks advance.
#8 Miami vs. #9 Michigan State (Tulsa, OK)
You can’t pick against Tom Izzo in March, right? Well I’m sure most of your friends won’t, but I sure am. The Spartans were overhyped from the get go, and never played up to their expectations. If they can’t beat Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament, how are they going to beat Miami? And don’t forget, Sparty was upset in the first round last year as a #2 seed by #15 Middle Tennessee State. The Hurricanes on the other hand had a good year with wins against North Carolina, Duke, and at Virginia. Miami dealt with injuries early but are healthy at the right time, and are led by a great coach themselves. For what it’s worth, Jim Larranaga is 4-2 in the tournament since taking over as head coach. Go Canes.
#5 Iowa State vs. #12 Nevada (Milwaukee, WI)
I had this game circled the moment it was announced, and not for a reason you may be thinking of. A strategy I like to use for the tournament, and I have heard other sharp bettors use this tactic as well, is to do the complete opposite of what the talking heads on CBS, ESPN, etc. are telling you. When this match-up came up on the Selection Show, Seth Davis would not shut up about Nevada and how much he loves them. He was beyond confident that this was the upset of the tournament. There’s a reason he’s on TV and not betting these games professionally with his so-called expertise. The Mountain West is complete garbage, and Nevada was the least-worst team to get the automatic bid. There’s a reason this conference did not have an at large bid, as they wrongly have received in the past. Meanwhile, the Cyclones just won the Big 12 Tournament and played extremely well in conference play, including huge road wins at Oklahoma State, Kansas and Kansas State. This team is for real and moving on.
#4 Purdue vs. #13 Vermont (Milwaukee, WI)
Vermont will have a difficult time matching up against Purdue’s bigs, but screw it. One of these #13 seeds has to win, right? Vermont rolled through the America East Conference and have won 22 games in a row. Granted, their schedule wasn’t difficult but that is still an impressive streak. The stats certainly lean to the Boilermakers, but I simply don’t trust them. They were the top team in a very down year for the Big Ten, so they had lucky timing more than anything. Furthermore, their loss to Michigan in the Big Ten quarterfinals (their first game) could not have helped their confidence. Even if I’m wrong, they certainly won’t beat Iowa State in the next round so I’m risking very little. I’m right though, take Vermont.
#6 Creighton vs. #11 Rhode Island (Sacramento, CA)
This is another bullshit pairing by the committee, putting two dangerous Mid-Majors against each other in the first round. Both teams could certainly make a run, but the NCAA needed to protect their popular, money-making teams. Anyways, I think Rhode Island wins big here. If you didn’t watch the Atlantic 10 Tournament, then you missed out on some good basketball by the Rams. They were in control the whole game in the championship against VCU and looked like they could beat anyone. And in case you forgot, they were a preseason Top 25 team before starting slow due to injuries. Creighton had a nice run themselves making it to the Big East final before losing to Villanova, but they haven’t been the same team since losing starting point guard Maurice Watson to injury – and you need a good point guard in this tournament. I’ll take the Rams here.
#3 Oregon vs. #14 Iona (Sacramento, CA)
I don’t expect this to be much of a contest. Oregon was a Final Four favorite before the season started, and finished second in the Pac-12 regular season going 16-2. They lost by 3 points to Arizona in the Pac-12 Championship, who is the #2 seed in the West. The injury to Ducks’ senior forward Chris Boucher may hurt them later on as he was their second best player, but just about anyone in this field could beat Iona. Quack quack, Ducks advance.
#7 Michigan vs. #10 Oklahoma State (Indianapolis, IN)
This is probably the toughest game to pick in the first round. I rated both teams highly before the Selection Show, and was very frustrated when I saw they were paired against each other. Oklahoma State has the most efficient offense in the country, but are undersized and struggle on defense. Michigan, however, ranks fifth in offensive efficiency and has a much better defense. Additionally, the Wolverines are very patient on offense and will wear out the Cowboys already subpar defense. Michigan may have struggled early on, but are now one of the hottest teams in the country coming off a Big Ten Tournament championship. As an Illinois fan and alum, Much Fichigan, but they win this one.
#2 Louisvile vs. #15 Jacksonville State (Indianapolis, IN)
Jacksonville State relies on the three ball more than almost anyone – over 40% of their points come from downtown. Unless they shoot lights out against the seventh best defense in the country, this game is not going to be close. Louisville takes care of business and moves on.
SECOND ROUND
#1 Kansas vs. #8 Miami (Tulsa, OK)
This is starting to become a somewhat popular pick among other sharp bettors I follow, but I suppose that’s a good thing. For one, you can never trust Bill Self in the postseason (Exhibit A, Exhibit B, Exhibit C*, Exhibit D). Two, they didn’t necessarily dominate as their record and seed may suggest. Yes, they went 16-2 in a stacked Big 12, but they were down often at halftime, sometimes by double digits. They also only won by 7 or less in 11 of their 16 wins, and lost their first game in the Big 12 Tournament against TCU. Lastly, they rely far too heavily on Frank Mason, Josh Jackson and Devonte’ Graham. Miami is a very good team with a great defense (21st in defensive efficiency) and a great coach as I pointed out above, and they are just as tested coming from the ACC. The U makes it to the Sweet 16.
*I couldn't find an actual highlight for the Stanford game, but the cowbell kid is even better. I totally forgot about that.
#5 Iowa State vs. #13 Vermont (Milwaukee, WI)
It’s actually pronounced Mill-e-wah-que, which is Algonquin for “the good land.” Unfortunately, Vermont won’t think so as their Cinderella dreams are blown away by the Cyclones. Iowa State lives (and dies) by the three shooting 40.2% from long distance this season, while Vermont allows 34.5% from three on defense (albeit against weaker competition). Iowa State should also have plenty of fan support at the Bradley Center and is far more talented. Cyclones win this one.
#3 Oregon vs. #11 Rhode Island (Sacramento, CA)
I told you Rhode Island is good, right? This is going to be an exciting game, as two great defenses go at it. Oregon ranks 24th in defensive efficiency, while Rhode Island is just behind them at 32nd. Oregon has a slightly better offense, but I think this is where the absence of Chris Boucher comes into play. He averaged 11.8 points per game, but more importantly his ability to hit three’s as a 6’10” forward really stretched opponent defenses. That’s going to help Rhode Island’s already great defense immensely, and they have the firepower to keep up with the Ducks. The Rams move on to Kansas City.
#2 Louisville vs. #7 Michigan (Indianapolis, IN)
That’s right, all top 4 seeds in the Midwest don’t make it past the first weekend. Michigan is totally under-seeded here (Minnesota is a 5 seed for crying out loud) and possibly the hottest team in the country. Louisville had a great season, but played poorly on the road going 4-5 in ACC play and lost their only game in the ACC Tournament in Brooklyn. Indianapolis is a friendlier location, but Michigan has way more experience at Bankers Life Fieldhouse from past Big Ten tournaments. Louisville holds the edge on the defensive end, but Michigan has the better offense and looked great defensively as of late. Call me crazy, but Michigan keeps rolling.
SWEET SIXTEEN (Regional Semi-Finals)
#5 Iowa State vs. #8 Miami (Kansas City, MO)
I didn’t expect this match-up when I first started researching, but it’s totally right. This will be another good offense (Iowa State) versus good defense (Miami) game with the Cyclones trying to push the tempo. As mentioned, Iowa State shoots plenty of threes (about 25/game) at a 40.2% clip, and will try to wear out Miami with a fast-paced game. The Hurricanes will play great defense, but I expect them to fade towards the end due to not having a deep bench. Iowa State also has the huge advantage of recently playing three games at the Sprint Center in Kansas City for the Big 12 Tournament. There, they shot 44.4% from three and should have no problem doing the same (if not better) here again.
#7 Michigan vs. #11 Rhode Island (Kansas City, MO)
I would love to see Rhode Island’s season continue to the Elite Eight, but I’m afraid Michigan is too much for them to handle. Led by two senior guards, the Wolverines are the 8th best shooting team and commit the least turnovers in the nation. Although Rhode Island has a great defense, Michigan is playing nearly flawless basketball as of late and I expect their streak to continue.
ELITE EIGHT (Regional Finals)
#5 Iowa State vs. #7 Michigan (Kansas City, MO)
This is a pretty even match-up with two conference tournament champions going head-to-head. Michigan with a slight edge on offense (5th versus 13th in offensive efficiency) while Iowa State has the edge on defense (43rd versus 68th in defensive efficiency). However, I side with Iowa State for two reasons. First as I already mentioned, they are very familiar with the Sprint Center in Kansas City and shot 44.4% from three during the Big 12 Tournament there last week. Secondly, Michigan is one of the worst defenders of the three, giving up 37.8% from long distance. Iowa State’s sharpshooting should get them through to the Final Four for the first time since 1944 (which probably shouldn’t even count since the tournament consisted of 8 teams then).