This NBA season has been pretty unusual for betting against the spread. Usually, the mid-market teams fighting for a playoff spot and not in the public spotlight prove to have the best value. This year, teams like Orlando, Portland, and Charlotte would fit the description. These teams stay under the radar and generally offer profitable opportunities as the public is slow to catch up to their performance.
This is because winning, high-profile teams get the most attention, and thus the most public money is bet on them. The sportbooks already know this, so they set their spreads higher than they should be to make money off public bias. Therefore, the best teams do not cover the spread well. The opposite is true for the mid-market teams playing well as their spreads don't reflect their actual performance and cover their spreads more often.
I was talking to a friend about this yesterday, and I realized how this season has been so different. Yes, the mid-tier teams I mentioned above have been great teams to back against the spread; but strangely the top teams have done even better. The best teams against the spread are below:
Notice most of these teams are in the middle of the playoff race and from smaller markets. Oddly though, the two best teams in the league sit atop this list. The last time the top two teams had the best record against the spread was the strike-shortened 2011-12 season. To put it another way, this is unusual. For all the attention the Warriors are getting about chasing the '96 Bulls, I think the most amazing thing about their season is their ATS record. This means they are simply blowing teams out, including the Spurs. On average, Golden State has been favored by 12.6 points at home and 10.1 points overall. With so much media attention, the spreads for their games are certainly inflated. Despite this, the Warriors are still covering games at an incredible, if not ridiculous, rate.
I would be saying the same about San Antonio, but the Spurs are just unusual in general. The quiet dynasty has been the best team ATS this year, and are sneakily right behind Golden State for the longest home winning streak in league history. As usual though, the Spurs are an afterthought for casual fans when considering championship caliber teams. Because of this, the point spreads for their games are not affected as much by public perception.
Still, being 56-10 is very impressive. This has caused the Spurs to be favored by 11.8 points at home and 9.3 points overall. San Antonio is 39-27 against the spread so they aren't just winning, they are running circles against the bottom 28 teams. I usually fade the popular winning teams later in the year since they will receive the most public bets. However, we are witnessing two of the best seasons in NBA history from the Warriors and Spurs. It is obvious that they are both a level or two above the rest of the league - and the Warriors are even another step above San Antonio. With that considered, don't underestimate their ability to cover an 18 point spread.
The other teams on the list are definitely offering value as well. I have always felt confident when betting these teams to cover and the table above shows why. This is definitely something to keep an eye on during the season as this is usually where you will find the most value. One of my favorite ways to find value is not only to see who is covering the spread the most, but by how much. Portland, Denver and Charlotte have been some of my top teams to back and a good reason is their winning margins. They are all covering their spread by 2.5 points on average, which is a huge difference over 65 games.
The site I use to track these trends is Team Rankings. This site is a great resource for NBA betting trends as well as NCAA basketball. I highly recommend bookmarking the site to refer to regularly. Since it is Selection Sunday, check out all their great tools for March Madness pools, too.
If you have any unanswered questions about betting trends or sports betting in general, feel free to send me a message. You can also subscribe here to receive new blog posts like this and other updates to Fast Break Bets via email. Thanks for stopping by and good luck!
-Stephen