Isn’t this great? Blue skies, fresh cut grass, birds chirpin…
Damn it Stephen, you used that last year. Despite writing one article over the past year, I’m still low on appropriate movie quotes. Oh well, you’re here for winners not laughs. Apologies for not writing much lately, turns out skiing is more fun, but I have a bigly post below to share my model’s preseason predictions and picks.
Like last year, I’ll be using my predictive model that I utilize for day-to-day betting to project how each team will do in 2019. I did this by gathering individual player statistics and projections from FanGraphs, graded each team’s talent level, and then determined each team’s probability of winning every game on their schedule. After that, I simply added up all the probabilities to come up with a projected win total. It’s a bit more complex than the four steps I listed, but this is the basic idea behind my process.
Last season these plays went 5-3 for a small win, with one of those losses being Mariners under 81.5 wins. For those that don’t remember, the M’s went 14-1 in extra-inning games and finished with a 89-73 record despite a 77-85 Pythagorean record for 2018. There’s always a team like this each year, and I was unfortunately on the wrong side of 2018’s luckiest team. But I digress, let’s turn the page to 2019.
With (almost) all the big name free agents signed, we have a good idea of how well each team should perform this season. The win totals market is quite efficient at this point with just about all the big bets in place molding the lines appropriately. This is evident as 13 win totals fall within one win of my projections, and 20 are within two wins. On top of that, all but two moved in the direction of my projections, which is a bummer but also a good sign for my model. However, there are still six out there that are offering enough value to warrant a play based on my numbers.
In edition to these six plays, I’ll list my six division winners as well as the two Wild Card teams for each league if you wish to use this information for other futures. And unlike those annoying recipe blog sites that make you scroll through the writer’s life story and 15 ads before getting to the part you actually care about, it’s all right here. Enjoy and good luck.
2019 Win Total Picks
I was going to say these are in no particular order, but that’s not true. They’re in alphabetical order. That would’ve been embarrassing. Anyways, win total markets are always skewed towards the over, so unsurprisingly all but one of my plays are unders. When the Westgate set the market this season, there were 2,439 total wins listed among all 30 teams (only 2,430 are possible). This number has actually risen slightly to 2,440.5 thanks to the market’s tendency to bet overs. While I mentioned most of the win totals have become more efficient, those extra 10.5 wins provide some inefficiencies that my model has hopefully identified. Let’s dive in.
Braves Under 86 Wins
Projection: 82.8 Wins Last Year: 90-72
After an outstanding 2018, the Braves had a pretty dull offseason aside from signing Josh Donaldson and retaining veteran Nick Markakis. The Phillies, Nationals and Mets all did a better job improving their rosters, which has made the NL East the third toughest division in baseball. After everything went right for Atlanta last season, including a 23-12 record in one-run games, we can expect a dip in performance in addition to facing a tougher schedule in 2019. My model has the Braves as the odd man out in this division race and barely finishing above .500 for the season.
Brewers Under 86.5 Wins
Projection: 79.9 Wins Last Year: 96-67
As a lifelong Cubs fan, I’d be lying if I didn’t say how giddy I was to see this projection. It’s quite a bit off the market price so I’m not loading all my bitcoins on the under, but I trust my numbers and can see the rationale behind it. One of my favorite things to look at when doing MLB win totals is a team’s record in one-run games from the season prior (as I already referenced for the Braves). My model doesn’t factor this in, but it’s fair to expect these results to trend towards 50% over time. The Brewers were 33-19 in these situations last year, which supports this under case. This is still a dangerous team, and I actually enjoy watching them and hitting up Miller Park but being in arguably the toughest division in baseball will eat away at some of last year’s wins. With the improved Cardinals and Reds along with the 2019 World Champion Cubs making up a significant chunk of the schedule, I’m confident in this one cashing.
Indians Over 90.5 Wins
Projection: 95.1 Wins Last Year: 91-71
Here’s that lone over I mentioned, and as a lifelong unders bettor, I don’t hate it. Who else is going to win games in the AL Central? With Carlos Santana returning to virtually replace Edwin Encarnacion’s production (if not provide a slight bump), and Corey Kluber never being traded, we have about the same team as last year in a division that somehow got even worse. Add in that the Indians had some bad luck in regard to sequencing as their 2018 campaign finished with 98 Pythagorean wins, which is a good indicator for a team’s actual performance. They also went 22-24 in one-run games, so all signs point to a better 2019 record. And did I mention the AL Central is going to be historically bad? Aside from the Twins, I have the other three teams finishing under 70 wins. The Indians should easily crack 90 W’s.
Phillies Under 89.5 Wins
Projection: 85.3 Wins Last Year: 80-82
Despite the Phillies winning the offseason by signing Bryce Harper, Jean Segura, Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson, as well as trading for JT Realmuto, I’m taking the under here. I still rate the Nationals and Mets slightly better as surprising as that may be, so 90 wins may be a stretch for this squad. Even with an 8-20 September last season, the Phillies still managed to outpace their expected wins from widely accepted metrics. With a Pythagorean record of 76-86 and finishing 23-18 in one-run games, you can’t exactly use 80 wins as a baseline for 2018. They are undoubtedly going to be very good with a young, talented line-up and a starting rotation led by ace Aaron Nola, but they won’t be 90 wins good.
Rockies Under 84.5 Wins
Projection: 78.5 Wins Last Year: 91-72
Like the Brewers, this was a bit of a head scratcher at first glance. Initially I thought my model was becoming self-aware and taking up my own allegiances by shitting on the two teams that eliminated our beloved Cubbies last year, but that’s crazy. After diving into the numbers and Colorado’s offseason, my projection makes more sense. One of the biggest storylines for the Rockies last year was their success on the road. Due to the severe altitude change this team experiences when traveling, we’ve come to expect the opposite. However, the 2018 Rockies won 44 road games. This was done despite having a -6 run differential outside of Coors Field, which would lead us to expect 3-4 wins less. Also factor in their 26-15 record in one-run games, and their Pythagorean record of 85-78 makes sense. As for their offseason, DJ LeMahieu, Carlos Gonzalez, Matt Holliday, Gerardo Parra and Adam Ottavino have all departed Denver. With Daniel Murphy being their biggest acquisition, 78.5 wins doesn’t seem so crazy (especially after witnessing Murphy in blue pinstripes for a few months, yikes). Sorry my fellow Coloradans, this will likely be a disappointing season for the Rox.
White Sox Under 74 Wins
Projection: 69.0 Wins Last Year: 62-100
Man, maybe this model is biased after all. We’re a Cardinals under away from this becoming a serious concern. But let’s be real, the White Sox are terrible and have gone from a team of the future to a total dumpster fire in one awful offseason. I know it, you know it, all of Chicago knows it. More importantly, Manny knew it. The White Sox were objectively my favorite win total bet last year (Under 70.5 wins), and I’m feeling just as confident in this one. I’ll admit they picked up some nice role players and added some starting pitching depth; and the end of James Shields’ contract is also a plus. Their 15-25 record in one-run games offers some hope as well, but this combined with the offseason acquisitions (or lack thereof) still doesn’t move the needle much. My projected 69 wins is an improvement from last season but missing out on Machado was a big loss for 2019 and the franchise’s future, so it’ll be another long season on the South Side.
Division & Wild Card Predictions
AL East: Red Sox NL East: Nationals
AL Central: Indians NL Central: Cubs
AL West: Astros NL West: Dodgers
AL Wild Cards: Yankees, Twins NL Wild Cards: Mets, Cardinals
Personally, I only bet win totals because I don’t like tying up too much of my bankroll for an entire season and trust my numbers for these the most. If I had to bet any of the above futures though, I’d take the Indians (-325), Astros (-550), Nationals (+260) and Dodgers (-350) to win their respective divisions. Those are steep prices for the Indians, Astros and Dodgers, but I have them each winning theirs by a wide enough margin to justify a position. And as for the Nationals, I have them winning the NL East by two games over the Mets. With this division likely being a three-team race, anything over +200 (33% implied chance) is a good price in my opinion.
One other position I would also consider taking is the Twins (+225) to make the playoffs. I have them finishing with 87 wins, which is good enough for the second wild card spot based on my numbers. The Rays and Angels come in the mix as well with 85 and 84 wins respectively, but like the Nationals, getting better than +200 for this projected three-team race on the team I favor offers good value.
That’ll do it for my 2019 predictions and preseason picks, but if you’re looking for even more analytical, value-based picks than head on over to my MVP page! There you can sign-up for access to my model’s daily MLB plays to profit all season long. You can find more information about my service and past results on this page as well, but if you have any questions feel free to email me or message me on Twitter. Thanks for reading and good luck!