Isn’t this great? Blue skies, fresh cut grass, birds chirpin’ – and baseball. Spring Training has finally arrived, and teams are starting their first week of games in the Cactus and Grapefruit leagues. We are still weeks away from Opening Day, but 2018 MLB Win Totals were released as early as February 14 – a great Valentine’s Day gift courtesy of CG Technology. With that, it’s time to start our own Spring Training and gear up for the daily grind of betting Major League Baseball.

Like last year, I’ll be using my predictive model that I utilize for day-to-day betting to project how each team will do in 2018. I did this by gathering individual player projections from FanGraphs, graded each team’s talent level, and then determined each team’s probability of winning every game on their schedule. After that, I simply added up all the probabilities to come up with a projected win total. It’s a bit more complex than the four steps I listed, but this is the basic idea behind my process.

Unfortunately, there are still quite a few notable unsigned free agents out there so my projections may change slightly in the coming weeks. However, the win totals I have narrowed down to bet have significant edges regardless.

I’ll be covering one division at a time, going east to west in the American League and then the National League. I have included a table for each division with my projected standings, their current win total price, and a few metrics I consider. Hopefully, this will help you follow my thought process and how to view betting baseball in an analytical way.

The payout for these win total bets are six months away, but there are three main benefits for doing all this work. First, the MLB Win Total market is possibly the easiest to bet if you know how to handicap it. There are so many great resources and projections out there to help, especially if you are focused on the analytics like I am. Relatedly, the 162-game sample size allows you to rely on these same analytics much more than other sports. Comparing it to football, the variance is significantly smaller over 162 games than it is in just 16 games. This is why advanced metrics are more, well, advanced than the other major American sports. Lastly, all the preseason research needed for picking win totals helps prepare you for the daily grind of the MLB season. By comparing your numbers to the posted win totals, you have a good idea of which teams will be over- and under-valued the first few weeks of the regular season.

With that said, let’s dive in! Leading off…

American League East

Team	2018 Proj. W-L	Win Total	2017 W-L	2017 Pyth. W-L	2017 One-Run Games	2017 Extra Inning Games	2017 Cluster Luck
Yankees	95-67	94.5	91-71	100-62	18-26	5-6	0.0
Red Sox	95-67	91.5	93-69	93-69	22-19	15-3	+72.9
Blue Jays	84-78	81.5	76-86	72-90	26-27	5-14	-23.9
Rays	75-87	75.5	80-82	80-82	21-24	8-6	-64.8
Orioles	72-90	72.5	75-87	72-90	21-20	12-4	+12.4

Pyth. (Pythagorean) W-L: Expected 2017 record based on a formula using actual runs scored and runs given up. It is a better indicator of a team’s future performance than a team’s actual winning percentage. More info here.

One-Run & Extra-Inning Games: This is self-explanatory, but these show the records for each team in 2017 in games that were decided by one-run and games that went to extra innings. Over time, teams should win about 50% of these games, so outlier performances should not be expected the following year.

Cluster Luck: This is a calculation from Ed Feng of The Power Rank. Since teams have little control over the clustering of their hits, this metric shows how lucky (positive) or unlucky (negative) a team was last season scoring and giving up runs based off the sequencing of their hits produced and allowed.

New York Yankees

2018 Prediction: 95-67        Opening Over/Under: 93.5 Wins        Current Over/Under: 94.5 Wins

Key Additions: Giancarlo Stanton, Brandon Drury

Key Losses: Starlin Castro, Chase Headley, Todd Frazier, Michael Pineda, Jaime Garcia, Bryan Mitchell

It’s hard to believe that the Yankees were SELLERS at the 2016 trade deadline just 19 months ago. Today, the Yankees are back in a familiar role as one of the favorites to win the 2018 World Series at most sportsbooks.  Of course, the biggest splash of the offseason was the Yankees landing Giancarlo Stanton from their old pal Derek Jeter and the Marlins. I won’t dive into any conspiracy theories here (although, come on Jeter, you’re not fooling anyone), but having the 2017 NL MVP hitting next to the Aaron Judge, 2017 Rookie of the Year and AL MVP runner-up, is going to be absolute madness.

One thing that pops out from the table above is the Yankees’ Pythagorean record. Based off the runs they scored and gave up in 2017, we would have expected them to win 100 games instead of 91. That’s a drastic difference, especially for a team that seemed to over-achieve to begin with. According to this metric, the Yankees were the “unluckiest” team in baseball by winning 9 fewer games. Looking at their results in one-run games helps explain this, as they were 18-26 in these situations (we expect teams to win about 50% of these due to their coin-flip nature). Looking at their cluster luck though, the Yankees ended exactly where we would expect based off their overall offensive, defensive and pitching performance.

However, this isn’t the same team and we need to consider the roster changes. The Yankees’ 2018 projected offensive WAR (wins above replacement) is actually lower than where they finished in 2017 (25.2 vs. 28.9), despite adding Stanton to the line-up (5.8 projected WAR). This is due to a few factors.

First, the departures of Starlin Castro, Todd Frazier, and Chase Headley add up to 6.6 WAR. Secondly, FanGraphs agrees that the young bombers overachieved in 2017, as their Steamer projections give Judge, Gary Sanchez, Didi Gregorius and Brett Gardner a collective 7 WAR drop in 2018. These projections are naturally conservative, but it tells us we can’t rely on the same offensive firepower as last season.

The numbers don’t improve as we move to the pitching rotation. Jaime Garcia and Michael Pineda will not be returning (combined 3.4 2017 WAR), but a full season of Sonny Gray alongside Luis Severino and Masahiro Tanaka gives the Yankees a solid punch at the top of the rotation. The talent drops off from their though as Jordan Montgomery and an aging C.C. Sabathia will be relied on for the back-end with little options for reinforcements.

The saving grace for the Yankees though will be their bullpen, which should be the best in the league by a wide margin. Aroldis Chapman, David Robertson, Dellin Betances, Tommy Kahnle, and Chad Green should be able to make up for a large chunk of the starting rotation’s shortcomings, though it will remain to be seen how new manager Aaron Boone utilizes his arsenal of arms.

Win Totals Bet (94.5 Wins): Pass. Despite adding Stanton to the line-up (5.8 projected WAR) along with former Arizona utility player Brandon Drury, it will be hard for the Yankees to replicate last season’s offensive power surge. My model projects them to win just shy of 95 games, which I can agree with after looking at last season’s metrics and the 2018 projections. Therefore, no value here.

 

Boston Red Sox

2018 Prediction: 95-67        Opening Over/Under: 91.5 Wins        Current Over/Under: 91.5 Wins

Key Additions: J.D. Martinez

Key Losses: Doug Fister, Addison Reed

The Red Sox won 93 games in 2017 for the second year in a row and were also eliminated in the first round of the playoffs for the second year in a row. Having 186 regular season wins but just one playoff win in two seasons is less than desirable, so how do the Red Sox plan on changing this? Like how all things in this world are changed – with money and power.

It took a while, but the Red Sox have finally added the power bat we all expected them to by signing J.D. Martinez to a five-year, $110 million contract. This signing makes sense for so many reasons. First, the Red Sox hit the least home runs in the American League with a measly 168 dingers in 2017 (the Yankees led MLB with 241). J.D. Martinez hit 45 homers of his own. Second, the Red Sox finished 20^th overall in weighted on-base percentage with a .316 wOBA. Martinez finished 2017 with a .430 wOBA and is projected for .377 in 2018 according to FanGraphs. Lastly, the Red Sox can’t go an offseason without committing $100 million to a free agent.

Joking aside, let’s see how this year’s version will perform compared to their win total of 91.5 wins. Looking at the table above, Boston won the exact number of games their run differential would suggest according to their Pythagorean wins. However, there are two huge discrepancies with that. The Red Sox finished 2017 with an incredible 15-3 record in extra-inning games. Additionally, their cluster luck was a league high 72.9 runs. This means their run differential should have been about 73 runs less, which is why we should have expected them finish closer to 87-75 instead of 93-69.

Fortunately, the Red Sox did not lose any key pieces on offense, so adding Martinez’s 2.5 projected 2018 WAR will help make up for their lackluster offensive numbers from last season, as will a healthy 2018 for Xander Boegarts, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Dustin Pedrioa. If everyone can stay off the DL for most of the season, the Red Sox offensive production should jump from 20.2 up to 26.7 WAR.

As for the starting pitching, Doug Fister will be a small loss and we can’t expect the same dominance from Chris Sale last season (though he certainly can do it again). However, most of that drop-off can be made up by David Price and Eduardo Rodriguez if they can stay healthy (big if for Price). Addison Reed is a big loss for the bullpen though, so expectations are low at the moment for the later innings.

Win Totals Bet (91.5 Wins): Pass. Although my model predicts 95 wins as the improved offense should make up for the decline in pitching, I don’t want to rely on healthy seasons from multiple impact players (especially David Price). This would have been a border-line over play for me, but there is too much uncertainty to pick a team to win over 91 games, and the market appears to agree with me as the number has held that number.

 

Toronto Blue Jays

2018 Prediction: 84-78        Opening Over/Under: 81.5 Wins        Current Over/Under: 81.5 Wins

Key Additions: Curtis Granderson, Randal Grichuk, Aledmys Diaz, Yangervis Solarte, Jaime Garcia

Key Losses: Jose Bautista, Darwin Barney, Miguel Montero, Michael Saunders, Ryan Goins, Cesar Valdez, Nick Tepesch, Dominic Leone

The Blue Jays did not start 2017 how bettors with over tickets on their win total wanted (I would know). If you don’t have that leftover sting, I’ll reluctantly remind you. Toronto started the season winning just once in their first ten games and finished April with eight wins. After that, they played almost .500 baseball going 68-69 and finished the season 76-86; way short of their 85.5 win total.

Looking at their Pythagorean record, they should have finished even worse based on their runs scored and allowed. However, this doesn’t tell the whole story. They managed to win just five of 19 games going to extra innings, and were also on the wrong side of cluster luck to the tune of almost 24 runs. Their 2017 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) supports this as they hit a league worst .276 in this category. Studies have shown that this statistic tends to regress to .300 over time, so being that far off over 162 games is quite unlucky. Toronto also finished with a .312 wOBA, which was second worst in the American League. Knowing this, I would say 76 games was justified if not a shade under their actual performance level.

Looking at their “key” losses above, the average fan would expect a big drop off for 2018. But what if I told you that only ONE player of those seven departing players had a WAR above zero, is that something you might be interested in? If you guessed anyone but Dominic Leone, you were wrong. Yep, reliever Dominic Leone was the only departing Blue Jay with a positive WAR (1.4). The others had a combined -3.0 WAR, so this is really addition by subtraction for the Jays.

Furthermore, their roster additions of Granderson, Grichuk, Diaz, Solarte and Garcia combine for a 5.7 projected WAR. Assuming their BABIP and cluster luck is at least neutral in 2018, along with no major injuries, the Blue Jays offense should have plenty of firepower in 2018. After a collective 10.6 WAR performance at the plate in 2017, FanGraphs projects the Jays bats to combine for a 21.6 WAR season. That is a YUGE improvement and will definitely show in the standings.

As for the pitching, we can expect an improvement there as well. It seems like their rotation is under-rated, which will feature club ace Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, Jaime Garcia and a healthy Aaron Sanchez. That is a solid pitching staff that will be complemented by an above average bullpen with Roberto Osuna closing and Joe Biagini returning to the bullpen after serving as a part-time starter in 2017. The Red Sox and Yankees will fight for the AL East crown, but don’t be surprised to see Toronto vying for one of the other wild card spots in September.

Win Totals Bet (81.5 Wins): Pass. I love what Toronto did during the offseason and they are definitely moving in the right direction. However, my projection is a shade too close to their win total and they will need to win a decent amount of games against the Red Sox and Yankees to finish the season over .500.

 

Tampa Bay Rays

2018 Prediction: 75-87        Opening Over/Under: 76.5 Wins        Current Over/Under: 75.5 Wins

Key Additions: Denard Span, Carlos Gomez, CJ Cron, Ryan Schimpf, Christian Arroyo

Key Losses: Evan Longoria, Peter Bourjos, Steve Cishek, Alex Cobb, Lucas Duda, Logan Morrison, Tommy Hunter, Colby Rasmus, Chase Whitley, Steven Souza Jr., Corey Dickerson, Jake Odorizzi

Like other sabermetric enthusiasts, I was excited about the 2018 Rays to see them improve simply based on their 2017 cluster luck numbers. Unfortunately. that was all thrown out the window when Tampa brass followed their Miami neighbor’s lead with a fire sale of their own. At first, the Rays just traded Evan Longoria to the Giants. This move, though surprising, made sense as Longoria was an expensive, declining asset with a contract through 2022. It sent an equally expensive contract back to Tampa in Denard Span, but he only has one year left on his deal. Numbers wise, the deal made sense for the cash-strapped Rays. They weren’t done, however.

Next, Corey Dickerson was designated for assignment and eventually traded to Pittsburgh. Then, CJ Cron was signed to a cheap deal to play first base instead of re-signing Logan Morrison – who recently signed a one-year deal with the Twins for $6.5 million. After that, Tampa traded Jake Odorizzi and Steven Souza Jr. For a team that was on the upswing, these moves were the complete opposite of what most expected. Management either traded or didn’t re-sign six of their top seven hitters, two starting pitchers and three of their better relievers (and their bullpen was already bad). It’s only a matter of time until ace Chris Archer and Gold Glove outfielder Kevin Kiermaier are shipped out as well.

Now that the Rays have completely bummed me out, let’s try to dissect their projections. As I mentioned, six of their seven best hitters are gone (Kiermaier being the one that remains, for now). These players accounted for 14 WAR last season – 14! Their offensive additions of Span, Gomez, Cron, Schimpf and Arroyo are projected to contribute only 2.4 wins above replacement. And if Kiermaier starts the first half of the season well and is in fact traded, a good chunk of his projected 3.9 WAR will be with another team. Good luck scoring runs this year.

Surprisingly, their starting pitching projects to be at a similar level despite losing Alex Cobb and Jake Odorizzi. Their present rotation of Archer, Blake Snell, Jake Faria, Nathan Eovaldi and Matt Andriese is expected to have a combined 10.9 WAR according to FanGraphs, compared to the rotation’s 2017 performance of 11.1 WAR. The bullpen will see a dip though. What was already a subpar bunch in 2017 is expected to be even worse in 2018 with the departures of Tommy Hunter, Chase Whitley and Steve Cishek. Even when they do have a lead, it won’t be safe in the late innings.

Win Totals Bet (75.5 Wins): Pass. Last year’s roster definitely could have finished above .500 in 2018, but as shown above they’re isn’t much left to work with after the front office gutted the team. I actually feel 75 wins is an optimistic projection, especially with the high probability or Archer and/or Kiermaier being dealt during the season, but I won’t argue with my model here. We’ll find another play.

 

Baltimore Orioles

2018 Prediction: 72-90        Opening Over/Under: 77.5 Wins        Current Over/Under: 72.5 Wins

Key Additions: None

Key Losses: Welington Castillo, Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Flaherty, Craig Gentry, Jeremy Hellickson, Ubaldo Jimenez, Seth Smith, JJ Hardy, Wade Miley

Contrary to the Blue Jays, the Orioles started the 2017 season red hot going 22-10 through May 9 and were in first place in the AL East. For the rest of the season though, Baltimore went 53-77, including a 7-20 record in September, to finish the season below .500 at 75-87. Their 2017 Pythagorean record suggests they should have won three less games, which their extra-inning games record can help explain as they went 12-4 in such situations.

Looking at their laundry list of departing players and a goose egg for key additions, one would expect a much bleaker 2018. However, Welington Castillo is the only player that had a WAR above 1.0 in 2017 (2.4), so these losses aren’t as significant. The Orioles are actually projected to have an almost identical offensive production in 2018 with the hope of Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo improving on lackluster 2017 performances. We can’t expect Jonathan Schoop to repeat his breakout season with 32 homers, 105 RBI and a .293/.338/.503 slash line, but he’s still projected to have an All-Star level 2018. With these bats along side Tim Beckham, Adam Jones and Trey Mancini, the Orioles still have an above-average offense.

Unfortunately, the same can’t be said about their pitching. Three starters are out the door in Wade Miley, Ubaldo Jimenez and Jeremy Hellickson, although they combined for a 1.4 WAR in 2017. This year’s rotation is not a pretty picture after Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, as the remaining starts are projected to be covered by Andrew Cashner (0.6 projected WAR), Chris Tillman (0.1), Gabriel Ynoa (0.2), Mike Wright (0.3), and Miguel Castro (0.0).

To make things worse, their best reliever (and arguably the best closer in the league) Zach Britton tore his Achilles in the offseason and is expected to miss the first half of the season. That leaves Darren O’Day, Brad Brach, Mychal Givens and Richard Bleier with a bunch of replacement-level arms to fill up the bullpen. Winning just 70 games is going to be difficult with the lack of quality pitching on this Orioles roster.

Win Totals Bet (72.5 Wins): Pass. This is the one win total I would have hammered under if I lived in Vegas and could have gotten to a CG Technology sportsbook before the other sharps did the same. A five win line move is quite significant, but seeing the market push the win total all the way down to my model’s projection is a decent consolation prize.

That wraps up my AL East preview! If I wrote this three weeks earlier, we would have had a play on the Orioles under, but I have two coming next in my AL Central preview! Check here to view all my division articles and win total picks when they come out, or subscribe to the blog to receive them in your inbox.

Lastly, if you'd like access to my model's daily picks and make a killing betting baseball this summer, then click here! My model had a fantastic season in 2017 winning 178 units, and I have made several improvements for an even better 2018. Learn more here and sign-up today!