Isn’t this great? Blue skies, fresh cut grass, birds chirpin’ – and baseball. Spring Training has finally arrived, and teams are starting their first week of games in the Cactus and Grapefruit leagues. We are still weeks away from Opening Day, but 2018 MLB Win Totals were released as early as February 14 – a great Valentine’s Day gift courtesy of CG Technology. With that, it’s time to start our own Spring Training and gear up for the daily grind of betting Major League Baseball.
Like last year, I’ll be using my predictive model that I utilize for day-to-day betting to project how each team will do in 2018. I did this by gathering individual player projections from FanGraphs, graded each team’s talent level, and then determined each team’s probability of winning every game on their schedule. After that, I simply added up all the probabilities to come up with a projected win total. It’s a bit more complex than the four steps I listed, but this is the basic idea behind my process.
Unfortunately, there are still quite a few notable unsigned free agents out there so my projections may change slightly in the coming weeks. However, the win totals I have narrowed down to bet have significant edges regardless.
I’ll be covering one division at a time, going east to west in the American League and then the National League. I have included a table for each division with my projected standings, their current win total price, and a few metrics I consider. Hopefully, this will help you follow my thought process and how to view betting baseball in an analytical way.
The payout for these win total bets are six months away, but there are three main benefits for doing all this work. First, the MLB Win Total market is possibly the easiest to bet if you know how to handicap it. There are so many great resources and projections out there to help, especially if you are focused on the analytics like I am. Relatedly, the 162-game sample size allows you to rely on these same analytics much more than other sports. Comparing it to football, the variance is significantly smaller over 162 games than it is in just 16 games. This is why advanced metrics are more, well, advanced than the other major American sports. Lastly, all the preseason research needed for picking win totals helps prepare you for the daily grind of the MLB season. By comparing your numbers to the posted win totals, you have a good idea of which teams will be over- and under-valued the first few weeks of the regular season.
With that said, let’s dive in! Next up…
American League West
| Team | 2018 Proj. W-L | Win Total | 2017 W-L | 2017 Pyth. W-L | 2017 One-Run Games | 2017 Extra Inning Games | 2017 Cluster Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 98-64 | 97.5 | 101-61 | 99-63 | 19-13 | 4-4 | -10.9 |
| Angels | 88-74 | 84.5 | 80-82 | 81-81 | 27-22 | 8-7 | +47.5 |
| Mariners | 79-83 | 82.5 | 78-84 | 79-83 | 26-15 | 7-5 | -16.0 |
| Rangers | 75-87 | 77.5 | 78-84 | 79-83 | 13-24 | 5-5 | +32.1 |
| Athletics | 75-87 | 74.5 | 75-87 | 73-89 | 21-21 | 4-9 | -74.3 |
Pyth. (Pythagorean) W-L: Expected 2017 record based on a formula using actual runs scored and runs given up. It is a better indicator of a team’s future performance than a team’s actual winning percentage. More info here.
One-Run & Extra-Inning Games: This is self-explanatory, but these show the records for each team in 2017 in games that were decided by one-run and games that went to extra innings. Over time, teams should win about 50% of these games, so outlier performances should not be expected the following year.
Cluster Luck: This is a calculation from Ed Feng of The Power Rank. Since teams have little control over the clustering of their hits, this metric shows how lucky (positive) or unlucky (negative) a team was last season scoring and giving up runs based off the sequencing of their hits produced and allowed.
Houston Astros
2018 Prediction: 98-64 Opening Over/Under: 96.5 Wins Current O/U: 97.5 Wins
Key Additions: Gerrit Cole, Joe Smith, Hector Rondon, Tim Federowicz
Key Losses: Carlos Beltran, Tyler Clippard, Luke Gregerson, Francisco Liriano, Cameron Maybin, Juan Centeno, Mike Fiers, Michael Feliz, Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran
The Astros had a solid 2017 to say the least. They won 101 regular season games, won their division by 21 games, led the league with 896 runs scored (that’s a lot), and beat the Dodgers in seven games in one of the most memorable (and controversial) World Series in recent history. However, the AL West is improving as I’ll detail below (especially the Angels), so will they be able to repeat in 2018?
According to FanGraphs, Houston is projected to have the best record in baseball with 100 wins. PECOTA, Baseball Prospectus’ projection system, is predicting a 99-win season. As for the MLB Clutchwrap (my own baseball model), it’s giving the defending champs a league-best 98 wins. It appears the consensus is the Astros will have a great chance to repeat and again be one of best teams in baseball. Let’s dive in to see how they’ll do it.
In 2017, the Astros won 101 games with a Pythagorean record of 99-63, cluster luck rating of -10.9, and a 19-13 record in one-run games. This all suggests that the Astros were a hair on the lucky side for a couple extra wins, but nothing noteworthy. As for this year’s rendition, we should be looking at a slightly improved ballclub – as scary as that sounds. This is likely the most complete team in the league with little weaknesses.
Their departing players list is a tad long, but Houston can overcome it. The best offense in 2017 shouldn’t have much of a drop-off as Cameron Maybin, Juan Centeno and Carlos Beltran did not produce much at the plate. Their total offensive WAR is projected to dip by about six wins, but that’s simply because they were so good last season. These projections are conservative in nature, so a 7.4 WAR season from last year’s MVP Jose Altuve won’t show up in the computers.
As for pitching, the bullpen did see some key arms head out the door; but the biggest losses (Luke Gregerson, Joe Musgrove, Colin Moran) were part of the trade that netted Gerrit Cole. I’d say that was a net positive move, and the Cole addition gives the Astros the best rotation in the American League. The bullpen is still one of the best as well, and my model rates them a sliver behind the Yankees at the top of the American League.
Win Totals Bet (97.5 Wins): Pass. When betting a win total this high, you need everything to go right to hit the over. The Astros had a phenomenal 2017 with 101 wins by overcoming some key injuries, making high-impact moves at the trade deadline and having career seasons from a number of their young stars. As the Cubs proved last year, that’s extremely difficult to replicate two seasons in a row. However, a full season of Justin Verlander as well as newly acquired Gerrit Cole will give a big boost to the rotation, but as I’ll go over next, the Angels have made a few improvements of their own to make 100 wins a bit more difficult to obtain.
Los Angeles Angels
2018 Prediction: 88-74 Opening Over/Under: 84.5 Wins Current O/U: 85.5 Wins
Key Additions: Shohei Ohtani, Ian Kinsler, Zack Cozart, Rene Rivera, Chris Young, Jim Johnson, Jabari Blash, Rymer Liriano
Key Losses: Brandon Phillips, Yunel Escobar, Eric Young, Cliff Pennington, Jesse Chavez, Ricky Nolasco, Andrew Bailey, Bud Norris, Yusmeiro Petit, Fernando Salas, Huston Street
The Angels made the free agent splash of the offseason by signing Japanese sensation Shohei Ohtani. He has been called Japan’s Babe Ruth, as he was both a pitching ace and slugger at the plate in the Japanese Pacific League. Not only did they sign the most-sought free agent, but they did it at a bargain. Aside from the $20 million paid to Ohtani’s former team as a posting fee, Ohtani will be paid the league minimum in addition to his signing bonus in 2018 – which comes out to $2.89 million. This is because he is under 25 years old and thus subject to international signing rules. Had he waited two more years, he could have likely signed for $200 million. He’ll have to wait to cash in at the major league level, but it appears money is of little importance for Ohtani. He could have received a bigger bonus from Seattle, but he chose the City of Angels instead.
The Angels made several other key acquisitions this winter to help fill the voids left by the departing players listed above. Zack Cozart is a big upgrade from Yunel Escobar at third base, and Ian Kinsler is also a step above the Angels’ former second baseman Brandon Phillips. The other losses at the plate, Eric Young and Cliff Pennington, were low impact platoon players; so the Angels’ offense is projected to be slightly improved from last year’s production.
As for the pitching, the rotation also gets an upgrade with the Shohei Ohtani signing. The former Japanese MVP is projected to have a much bigger impact on the mound than at the plate in 2018, although his performance in Spring Training does not suggest this at the moment. Regardless, the Angels rotation will still improve simply by being relatively healthy in 2018. The ballclub used 13 different starting pitchers last year, so having full seasons of Garrett Richards, Matt Shoemaker, and Tyler Skaggs should provide a big boost from 2017’s 5.1 WAR by the starters.
The bullpen will take a step back though with Yusmeiro Petit, Fernando Salas and Huston Street not being on this year’s roster. The trio combined for almost 3.0 WAR, which explains their AL West-worst 1.6 projected WAR among relievers for 2018. The Angels have plenty of talent in the rotation, so much that they are considering a six-man rotation, but the bullpen could be their Achilles heel.
Win Totals Bet (85.5 Wins): Pass. This likely would have been an over play at the opening number of 84.5 wins, and although there is still some value for my projected 88 wins, I don’t want an over pick relying on this bullpen. Their rotation’s recent health issues is also a concern, as is trying to project Ohtani’s impact in his first season.
Seattle Mariners
2018 Prediction: 79-83 Opening Over/Under: 81.5 Wins Current O/U: 82.5 Wins
Key Additions: Dee Gordon, Mike Ford, Andrew Romine, Ryon Healy, Juan Nicasio, Nick Rumbelow
Key Losses: Yonder Alonso, Jarrod Dyson, Carlos Ruiz, Danny Valencia, Yovani Gallardo, Drew Smyly, Andrew Albers
Growing up, I became a bit of a Mariners fan watching Ken Griffey Jr. and later Ichiro make incredible plays at the plate and in the outfield as my Cubbies struggled to win more than 70 games most years. During that time, the Mariners won 116 games in 2001, tying the 1906 Cubs for most wins in a season (though having eight more games to do it). The magic from that season wore off quickly though, as Seattle hasn’t been to the playoffs since and have managed to hover between 71-87 wins the past six seasons. In our current win or tank era, being in the middle of the two will keep you docked at mediocrity.
Last year’s crew managed to win just 78 games. Their Pythagorean win-loss was a win higher (79-83) and were a shade on the unlucky side (-16.0 cluster luck runs), but their record in one-run games (26-15) should be a huge concern. In a division with the defending world champions and a resurgent Angels squad, finishing around .500 could be a tough task.
When looking at their key additions and losses, the Mariners had a decent offseason but were hoping for more fireworks. That’s mainly because they were planning to sign Shohei Ohtani, who chose the Angels as we just covered. Yonder Alonso is the only big loss for the line-up, though Jarrod Dyson, Carlos Ruiz and Danny Valencia were all contributors as well. With that said, Dee Gordon was a great pick-up for this club. His speed and ability to get on base will supplement a still great line-up with Kyle Seager, Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Jean Segura. Scoring runs shouldn’t be an issue.
As for the pitching, having Mike Leake for a full season will be a small boost, as will not having Yovani Gallardo. Healthy seasons from James Paxton and Felix Hernandez will be key though. The two combined for just 214 innings last season, and it will be hard to win 80 games without two of your top three pitchers. According to FanGraphs projections, the starting rotation should be slightly improved with the hope that Paxton and Hernandez can start about 30 games apiece.
Win Totals Bet (82.5 Wins): Pass. If I had to make a play, it would be under as my model projects a 79-win season and their rotation health gives me some concern. However, they still have a potent offense and 3.5 wins is just a hair below the difference I typically want (4+).
Texas Rangers
2018 Prediction: 75-87 Opening Over/Under: 76.5 Wins Current O/U: 77.5 Wins
Key Additions: Juan Centeno, Darwin Barney, Trevor Plouffe, Matt Moore, Mike Minor, Doug Fister, Tim Lincecum, Bartolo Colon, Edinson Volquez, Kevin Jepsen
Key Losses: Carlos Gomez, Mike Napoli, Will Middlebrooks, Andrew Cashner, Miguel Gonzalez, AJ Griffin, Nick Martinez, Jason Grilli
After defying regression in 2016 by going 36-11 in one-run games, and after spending half of my 2017 Rangers preview ranting about it, baseball’s luckiest team had the tables turned on them by going 13-24 in one-run games last season.
Now that we have that covered, what should we expect for 2018 out of Arlington? First, the Rangers’ standings metrics are conflicting. Texas was a win short of their Pythagorean record, but also benefited from 32 runs of cluster luck. Despite being on the positive side of this, they still managed to lose 13 of 37 games decided by one run. As I just noted, this was a hard regression from 2016’s performance in this situation but is still a notable outlier. All in all, I’ll call it a wash and say the Rangers finished 2017 where they should have.
There isn’t much to say other than my projections give the Rangers a few less wins in 2018. They made several moves in the offseason, but nothing of substance. Texas completely overhauled their pitching staff by replacing 80% of their end of season rotation. Andrew Cashner, Miguel Gonzalez, Nick Martinez and A.J. Griffin all left the club, and their slots will be filled by Matt Moore, Mike Minor, Doug Fister, Bartolo Colon and Edinson Volquez. I make those changes about neutral, but we also can’t forget the Rangers had four months of Yu Darvish before trading him to the Dodgers last season. That’s the main difference in starting pitching between 2017 and 2018, and causes 2-3 less wins in my projections.
Lastly, the losses on offense seem significant until you look at the numbers. Carlos Gomez is the only big loss after a 2.2 WAR season, as Napoli and Middlebrooks played near or below replacement-level last year. Like the rotation, the Rangers filled these holes with C-list talent in Juan Centeno, Darwin Barney and Trevor Plouffe. The starting line-up still has some solid bats with Adrian Beltre, Joey Gallo, Nomar Mazara and Elvis Audrus, but this team will struggle to score runs outside of their core.
Win Totals Bet (77.5 Wins): Pass. I would’ve liked to see this a little higher to make an under play, as the Rangers could quite possibly finish in last place for just the second time since 2008. It would be a good idea for them to go into rebuild mode while the Astros and Angels control the division, so I expect the Rangers to be sellers at the trade deadline. If you’re on the fence on playing the under, this definitely helps the cause.
Oakland Athletics
2018 Prediction: 75-89 Opening Over/Under: 74.5 Wins Current O/U: 74.5 Wins
Key Additions: Stephen Piscotty, Jonathan Lucroy, Ryan Buchter, Trevor Cahill, Yusmeiro Petit, Emilio Pagan
Key Losses: Chris Carter, Ryon Healy, Jaycob Brugman, Jesse Hahn
At first glance, I figured it would be another miserable summer in Oakland; and not just because of that godforsaken “stadium” of theirs. On top of needing a new stadium (or at least new plumbing), their owner refuses to have a competitive payroll and the club is projected to have the lowest in the league (again). I understand the rebuilding process, but anytime this team has a shimmer of hope in a productive player, he’s traded away for prospects.
The same thing played out in 2017, as the A’s traded the following people during and after the season: Sean Doolittle, Ryan Madson, Sonny Gray, Adam Rosales, Yonder Alonso, Rajai Davis, Ryon Healy, Jaycob Brugman and Jesse Hahn. Not all these guys are All-Star level players, but it is still an above average group to fill a roster with. The Athletics are building for the future again, but it just never seems that the future will ever arrive.
With that said, it’s not all negative in Oakland. Trading players has netted Oakland plenty of young talent, and a few will be seeing playing time this season such as Franklin Barreto and Dustin Fowler. The A’s also picked up Stephen Piscotty from the Cardinals, and late-signing Jonathan Lucroy will be a small boost to Oakland’s boom or bust line-up as well. Like last year, this team will hit plenty of home runs and strikeout A LOT.
As for pitching, the Athletics don’t have an ace – but aren’t completely talentless either. Kendall Graveman, Jharel Cotton and Sean Manaea are all mid-rotation level starters and help keep the club near .500. Like the Rangers though, there’s always the chance one of these guys are traded at the deadline. Teams will always pay a premium for starting pitching, and the A’s could net a few more prospects if any of these three have a solid first-half.
Despite the loss of Alonso, Healy, Brugman and Carter at the plate, the Athletics should actually have an improved offense in 2018. This is largely thanks to their offseason pick-ups in Stephen Piscotty and Jonathan Lucroy. In addition to their talent at the plate, these two should provide some needed veteran leadership for the young ballclub. And as I mentioned, they will still hit plenty of home runs. FanGraphs is projecting 211 dingers in 2018, which is the 7th-most in for their numbers.
Win Totals Bet (74.5 Wins): Pass. I could see this team winning more than 75 games, as I didn’t point out that the A’s were baseball’s unluckiest team in terms of cluster luck (-74.3) in 2017. However, you can’t rely on the front office not trading away wins in August and September for potential wins in the future.
That wraps up my AL West preview! I know this may be boring without any official win total picks, but hopefully the team previews will get you ready for Opening Day and give you a few things to watch for during the daily grind of the season. If you haven’t seen all my predictions yet, click here to view every division article and my win total picks. You can also subscribe to the blog to receive them in your inbox.
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