Isn’t this great? Blue skies, fresh cut grass, birds chirpin’ – and baseball. Spring Training has finally arrived, and teams are starting their first week of games in the Cactus and Grapefruit leagues. We are still weeks away from Opening Day, but 2018 MLB Win Totals were released as early as February 14 – a great Valentine’s Day gift courtesy of CG Technology. With that, it’s time to start our own Spring Training and gear up for the daily grind of betting Major League Baseball.
Like last year, I’ll be using my predictive model that I utilize for day-to-day betting to project how each team will do in 2018. I did this by gathering individual player projections from FanGraphs, graded each team’s talent level, and then determined each team’s probability of winning every game on their schedule. After that, I simply added up all the probabilities to come up with a projected win total. It’s a bit more complex than the four steps I listed, but this is the basic idea behind my process.
Unfortunately, there are still quite a few notable unsigned free agents out there so my projections may change slightly in the coming weeks. However, the win totals I have narrowed down to bet have significant edges regardless.
I’ll be covering one division at a time, going east to west in the American League and then the National League. I have included a table for each division with my projected standings, their current win total price, and a few metrics I consider. Hopefully, this will help you follow my thought process and how to view betting baseball in an analytical way.
The payout for these win total bets are six months away, but there are three main benefits for doing all this work. First, the MLB Win Total market is possibly the easiest to bet if you know how to handicap it. There are so many great resources and projections out there to help, especially if you are focused on the analytics like I am. Relatedly, the 162-game sample size allows you to rely on these same analytics much more than other sports. Comparing it to football, the variance is significantly smaller over 162 games than it is in just 16 games. This is why advanced metrics are more, well, advanced than the other major American sports. Lastly, all the preseason research needed for picking win totals helps prepare you for the daily grind of the MLB season. By comparing your numbers to the posted win totals, you have a good idea of which teams will be over- and under-valued the first few weeks of the regular season.
With that said, let’s dive in! Next up…
National League East
| Team | 2018 Proj. W-L | Win Total | 2017 W-L | 2017 Pyth. W-L | 2017 One-Run Games | 2017 Extra Inning Games | 2017 Cluster Luck |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 92-70 | 94.0 | 97-65 | 96-66 | 30-21 | 7-4 | -2.1 |
| Mets | 84-78 | 82.5 | 70-92 | 69-96 | 21-24 | 3-8 | -34.5 |
| Phillies | 77-85 | 78.5 | 66-96 | 72-90 | 31-36 | 7-10 | -10.6 |
| Braves | 74-88 | 75.0 | 72-90 | 73-89 | 19-24 | 6-8 | -9.6 |
| Marlins | 63-99 | 63.5 | 77-85 | 77-85 | 18-22 | 6-5 | -9.5 |
Pyth. (Pythagorean) W-L: Expected 2017 record based on a formula using actual runs scored and runs given up. It is a better indicator of a team’s future performance than a team’s actual winning percentage. More info here.
One-Run & Extra-Inning Games: This is self-explanatory, but these show the records for each team in 2017 in games that were decided by one-run and games that went to extra innings. Over time, teams should win about 50% of these games, so outlier performances should not be expected the following year.
Cluster Luck: This is a calculation from Ed Feng of The Power Rank. Since teams have little control over the clustering of their hits, this metric shows how lucky (positive) or unlucky (negative) a team was last season scoring and giving up runs based off the sequencing of their hits produced and allowed.
Washington Nationals
2018 Prediction: 92-70 Opening Over/Under: 91.5 Wins Current Over/Under: 92.5 Wins
Key Additions: Matt Adams, Matt Reynolds, Miguel Montero, Joaquin Benoit, Jeremy Hellickson
Key Losses: Adam Lind, Stephen Drew, Jayson Werth, Jose Lobaton, Matt Albers, Joe Blanton, Oliver Perez, Neil Ramirez
The Nationals come into 2018 with the highest win total on the board, and for good reason. Last year’s squad won 97 games, and a tad quietly I might add as most of our attention was on the Dodgers in the National League. Part of that would have to do with the Nationals winning the NL East by the All-Star Break last season and finishing 20 games ahead of the second-place Marlins (yes, the Marlins).
They earned all 97 wins for the most part, as they scored 819 runs (just 5 behind NL leading Colorado) and had a Pythagorean record of 96-66. Washington was a shade on the lucky side in one-run games going 30-21, which is kind of remarkable considering how bad their bullpen was in the beginning of the season. Despite those struggles, the NL East champions were very consistent as they won at least 57% of their games in every month of the season besides June when they went 14-14.
It’s incredibly difficult to replicate that consistent success as it relies on minimal injuries and avoiding slumps, though D.C. sports teams have developed a knack for strong regular season performances (along with early playoff exits). Remember how last season ended?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hTIAWImt78o
Sorry Nats fans, had to do it. If it’s any consolation, I think that call on Lobaton was BS – they need to change how they use replay. But we’re onto 2018 now, what should we expect? As for the offense, Washington is projected to have the third-best in the National League behind the Cubs and Dodgers. Adam Lind was the only significant loss from 2017, but he only played part-time anyways and is replaced by Matt Adams. Jayson Werth and Jose Lobaton were below replacement-level players last season, so it’s addition by subtraction with them off the roster.
For the pitching staff, their top four starters remain intact with Scherzer, Strasburg, Gonzalez and Roark. Last year, they managed to stay incredibly healthy making 121 out of 162 combined starts – quite the feat considering Dusty Baker’s track record of starting pitching usage. To have a chance getting over this season’s 94-win total, they’ll need to avoid any long stints on the disabled list again. A.J. Cole appears to be taking the final rotation spot, which should be a small upgrade to 2017’s combo of Joe Ross and Edwin Jackson. Washington also recently signed Jeremy Hellickson, so there is some decent depth if an injury does occur.
Finally, the bullpen took a couple big hits with the departures of Matt Albers and Oliver Perez, who combined for 93 innings last season. Joaquin Benoit was brought in to eat up a majority of those for 2018 (projected 55 IP), but he’s still a downgrade from either. Their group of relievers is still above average though, as Ryan Madson and Sean Doolittle are their to anchor down the big innings.
Win Totals Bet (94.0 Wins): Pass. I have the Nationals just below 94 wins, and as I alluded to above, you need everything to go right to get over a win total this high. There are two positives to help the case for the over though. First, Bryce Harper missed 52 games last season and Washington still won 97 games. Second, Dave Martinez was a fantastic hire to replace Dusty Baker. After years as Joe Maddon’s right hand man in Chicago and Tampa Bay, he’ll certainly be able to optimize this team’s many strengths.
New York Mets
2018 Prediction: 84-78 Opening Over/Under: 80.5 Wins Current O/U: 82.5 Wins
Key Additions: Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Lobaton, Jason Vargas, Anthony Swarzak
Key Losses: Tommy Milone, Nori Aoki, Josh Smoker
After the Cubs broke their curse in 2016, it seemed like the Mets may have caught a curse of their own. After advancing to the World Series in 2015 and winning 87 games in 2016 with arguably the best rotation in baseball, the Mets looked like a true contender coming into 2017. A pitching staff made-up of Noah Syndergaard, Jacob DeGrom, Zach Wheeler, Steven Matz and Matt Harvey seemed to good to be true; and last year, it was.
DeGrom was the only one that survived the season unscathed, as the other four spent most of their time on the disabled list and combined to pitch just 276 innings. It was quite a series of unfortunate events and caused this preseason contender to collapse into a 92-loss team. Not that their situation could get much worse, but things are looking up for 2018. The rotation appears to be having a healthy spring, and newly acquired Jason Vargas, who is recovering from surgery on his right hand, is expected back in action mid-April. Due to all those injuries in 2017, the Met’s rotation should nearly double from an 8.3 WAR squad to 16.4 WAR in 2018 – good for best in the NL East.
Unfortunately, the same improvement cannot be said about the offense. Due to last season’s pitching issues, the Mets became sellers at the trade deadline and unloaded most of their top hitters in Lucas Duda, Neil Walker and Curtis Granderson. They also traded Jay Bruce, but he has since resigned with the Mets. Along with Bruce, the line-up will still feature Michael Conforto (once he recovers from offseason shoulder surgery), Yoenis Cespedes, Travis d’Arnaud, and Asdrubal Cabrera from last season. Adding Todd Frazier helps a bit, but this will be an average offense at best and will definitely be relying on a healthy season for their starting pitching to win games.
As for the bullpen, top reliever Addison Reed was also a big trade deadline departure, but the addition of Anthony Swarzak during the offseason will help offset that loss. A full season of Jeurys Familia at closer will also provide a boost from 2017 when he only pitched 23 innings, and having AJ Ramos back as a set-up man (instead of filling in for Familia in the 9th) gives the Mets some solid options for the late innings. Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo, who had to help fill-in the rotation last year, can also help eat up plenty of innings if a starter gets knocked out early.
Win Totals Bet (82.5 Wins): Pass. I definitely lean towards the over, but after last season I do not want to rely on their starters staying healthy. Casual observers quickly forgot that we were talking this being a systemic problem in the organization and not just a stroke of bad luck in Queens. I’d still lean that way when 80% of the rotation spent a significant chunk of their season on the disabled list.
Philadelphia Phillies
2018 Prediction: 77-85 Opening Over/Under: 74.5 Wins Current O/U: 78.5 Wins
Key Additions: Carlos Santana, Jake Arrieta, Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek, Drew Hutchison
Key Losses: Daniel Nava, Freddy Galvis, Hyun Soo Kim, Clay Buchholz, Kevin Siegrist
Last year at this time, I perplexingly saw quite a few baseball writers and “experts” with bullish predictions for the 2017 Phillies. Their win total was set around 74.5 after a 71-91 season, and many felt their young talent would take another step forward to finish near 80 wins. However, those optimists were missing one glaring statistic: Pythagorean wins. The Phillies were one of the luckiest teams in 2016 as they finished the season nine wins better than their run differential suggested. In 2017, they unsurprisingly regressed and finished 66-96.
This year though, there is actual reason for hope for this struggling ballclub; which is why their win total has seen so much action. Before diving into their roster changes, the table above already gives Philadelphia some hope. The Phillies had the second-worst record in one-run games at 21-36, which could add 7-8 wins with some positive regression. Their record in extra-inning games was below .500 at 7-10, another potential source for a small bump in wins.
To add to this, the Phillies got better over the offseason. Carlos Santana was a great addition in many ways. He still has a great bat, is a projected 2.5 WAR hitter in 2018, and provides veteran experience to anchor this young line-up. The offense’s only significant losses were Daniel Nava and Freddy Galvis, who accounted for 2.6 WAR combined in 2017. However, this is offset by Santana and a full season of Rhys Hoskins. This is still a below-average offense, but a welcomed improvement nonetheless.
The Phillies also added a former All-Star free agent to the rotation in Jake Arrieta. As a Cubs fan, I was very sad to see him go (Yu Darvish was a decent replacement), but those feelings were mainly due to past memories rather than future expectations. After being the most dominant pitcher in baseball from June 2015 – June 2016, Arrieta has been in a noticeable decline. He finished 2017 on a strong note, but at age 32 he did not seem worth the lucrative long-term deal he and Scott Boras were looking for. The Phillies eventually agreed to a three-year, $75 million contract with the North Side’s former ace, and Arrieta will still help improve last season’s lackluster rotation.
Lastly, the additions of Tommy Hunter, Pat Neshek and Drew Hutchison will help upgrade one of the National League’s worst bullpens in 2017. They’re projected to combine for 1.0 WAR, which may not seem like much, but is a decent increase for relievers. The trio will also help improve the Phillies’ record in one-run and extra inning games, which as mentioned earlier was a combined 28-46.
Win Totals Bet (78.5 Wins): Pass. The movement from 74.5 to 78.5 wins is misleading as the opening number was posted before the Arrieta signing, but the market still pushed this up a couple wins on its own. I’m not quite as bullish as others seem to be, but I can’t make the case for the under, either. With almost 20 games against the Marlins, it’s hard to do that for any NL East team.
Atlanta Braves
2018 Prediction: 74-88 Opening Over/Under: 73.5 Wins Current O/U: 75.0 Wins
Key Additions: Preston Tucker, Brandon McCarthy, Anibal Sanchez, Scott Kazmir, Peter Moylan, Shane Carle
Key Losses: Matt Adams, Jace Peterson, Matt Kemp, Adonis Garcia, RA Dickey, Jim Johnson
The biggest story of the offseason for the Braves came back in November, and unfortunately had nothing to do with acquiring a big free agent. It turned out that the Braves had developed one of baseball’s top farm systems in a not-so-legal way, as General Manager John Coppolella illegally circumvented MLB’s international signing rules. After the league discovered this, Coppolella was relieved of his duties as GM and placed on Major League Baseball’s banned list.
As a result, the Braves were stripped of 13 prospects, including potential superstar Kevin Maitan. Additional sanctions will limit Atlanta’s involvement in the international free agent market until 2021, which may cause a delay in the Braves’ rebuilding process. They still have one of the strongest minor league systems in baseball though, with a few top prospects nearing their time in the show.
Because of this, some are making a bullish case for the Braves’ win total. As always, let’s first start with last year’s standing metrics. There were no big outliers, with the only discrepancies being their 19-24 record in one-run games and a -9.6 cluster luck rating. Positive regression in these categories could lead to 3-4 extra wins after 72 wins in 2017. That gets us right to their current win total of 75, so let’s see if the roster improved.
Looking at the list of key additions, the offense got worse, but the pitching is much improved. Matt Adams was the only true “key” loss from 2017, as his 1.7 WAR was the only one above zero. This year’s added bats won’t make up that lost production, but the young core will pick-up some of the slack if Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albeis can have better seasons as projected.
However, the rotation and bullpen did see some upgrades come their way. Brandon McCarthy was a nice addition to supplement Julio Teheran, Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb, and the Braves’ starters are projected to produce 4.5 more wins above replacement. Anibal Sanchez and Scott Kazmir also add some depth at the back-end. A few relievers were added as well, namely Peter Moylan and Shane Carle. With their help, one of worst bullpens from 2017 is now projected to be average to above-average. At the least, this should help improve the Braves’ performance in one-run games.
Win Totals Bet (75 Wins): Pass. The overall talent of the team didn’t change much, and there isn’t much positive regression looming from last season’s standing metrics. The opening number of 73.5 wins may have been a shade too low, but the market has corrected already. Atlanta will get plenty of wins against their cellar-dwelling southern neighbors in Miami, but as pointed out above, the Mets and Phillies got better (or simply healthier). Expect another sub-.500 season in Atlanta.
Miami Marlins
2018 Prediction: 63-99 Opening Over/Under: 64.5 Wins Current O/U: 64.5 Wins
Key Additions: Starlin Castro, Lewis Brinson, Cameron Maybin, Sandy Alcantara, Caleb Smith
Key Losses: Dee Gordon, Giancarlo Stanton, Marcell Ozuna, Christian Yelich, AJ Ellis, Edinson Volquez, Mike Aviles
The real-life version of the classic Major League is being played out in Miami – which is ironic because the movie’s version of the Indians were to move to Miami after their season. We all knew former owner Jeffrey Loria was awful, but what has happened in the months since the group featuring Derek Jeter took over has been a “hold my beer” situation in terms of their attempt to one-up Loria’s previous fire sales.
Giancarlo Stanton is gone. Marcell Ozuna is gone. Christian Yelich is gone. Dee Gordon is gone. JT Realmuto will soon be gone. In the Major League documentary, the Cleveland owner’s tactics accidentally fostered a can-do team spirit, turning the Indians into potential winners. Will Jeter’s slimy cost-cutting antics do the same? Hell no.
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Maybe the Marlins needed to rebuild. The tragic death of Jose Fernandez sent aftershocks through Major League Baseball, but the earthquake was in Miami, where the Marlins not only lost an endearing personality with a passion for the game, but also one of the game’s top starting pitchers. Miami has been unable to develop a lot of pitching talent and entered the offseason well behind the Washington Nationals in the NL East hierarchy. The trade returns progressively got better, after Dee Gordon and Giancarlo Stanton didn’t net a whole lot in terms of assets, but Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich yielded more upside.
Those (potential) future returns won’t arrive anytime soon though, and now the Marlins are left with a historically bad team in 2018. In 2017, Miami won 77 games – which matched up with their Pythagorean record and were about even in one-run games, extra innings and cluster luck. To illustrate how much worse the Marlins have gotten, I am projecting a 63-win season. That’s 14 less than the year before. When you lose all but one of your productive hitters and are left with just five total players with a projected WAR about 1.0, this is what you get.
Tanking in baseball had been a subtle art before Jeter’s experiment (see the Astros and Cubs five years ago), but this is NBA-level embarrassing. There’s really no use in breaking down the roster moves and comparing the production drop-off for each unit of the team. The Marlins are going to be beyond terrible, and the win total market reflects this. It’s going to be a long, miserable summer in Miami (but not really, it's Miami is still awesome).
Win Totals Bet (64.5 Wins): Pass. I can definitely see the Marlins losing more than 100 games, especially considering J.T. Realmuto will very likely be traded by July 31. However, just as you need everything to go right to bet on a good team winning over 100 games, you’ll need everything to wrong for Miami to lose 100. This is still baseball, and anything can happen. I’ll stay off this one.
That wraps up my NL East preview! These teams’ projections were incredibly close to their win totals, but hopefully the team previews will get you ready for Opening Day and give you a few things to watch for during the daily grind of the season. If you haven’t seen all my predictions yet, click here to view every division article and my win total picks. You can also subscribe to the blog to receive them in your inbox.
Lastly, if you'd like access to my model's daily picks and make a killing betting baseball this summer, then click here! My model had a fantastic season in 2017 winning 178 units with plays of 1-4 units, and I have made several improvements for an even better 2018. Learn more here and sign-up today!