The article’s title may make you think we are discussing how much each MLB team is worth in regard to ownership. Instead, we are analyzing the most and least expensive MLB teams based on their average odds in the sports betting market. For example, the Red Sox listed at -200 for their money-line would generally be considered expensive as you have to risk $2 for every $1 you hope to win. Meanwhile, the Padres having money-line odds of +200 is considered very cheap as you win $2 for every $1 risked.
In this article, it’s important to remember we are solely talking about expensiveness in terms of the odds price; not value. There could be plenty of value for the Red Sox at -200 if Chris Sale is pitching at Fenway Park against Dylan Covey and the White Sox – but risking $200 to win $100 is still expensive. The teams I list as most expensive are not necessarily teams to stay away from, and teams that are least expensive should not be interpreted as teams to automatically bet on (which I prove below). This is simply additional information to consider while making your own betting choices, and I’ll show you a few situations to best use it.
Most Expensive Teams
| Team | Avg. ML Odds | Imp. Win% | Actual Win% | Record | Win Total (Win%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | -157.4 | 61.2% | 62.1% | 41-25 | 94.5 (58.3%) |
| Indians | -147.1 | 59.5% | 50.0% | 31-31 | 93.5 (57.7%) |
| Cubs | -145.5 | 59.3% | 50.8% | 33-32 | 96.5 (59.6%) |
| Nationals | -142.8 | 58.8% | 60.0% | 39-26 | 90.5 (55.9%) |
| Astros | -138.6 | 58.1% | 67.2% | 45-22 | 90.5 (55.9%) |
Avg. ML Odds - Average money-line odds. The odds for a team to win straight-up.
Imp. Win% - Implied win percentage based on the money-line odds.
Actual Win% - Actual win percentage for each team based on their win-loss record
Record - Wins-Losses
Win Total (Win%) - The preseason win total number for the season with the corresponding win percentage ( # wins / 162 total games)
NOTE: Win Totals are bets you can make before the season begins on whether a team will win more or less games than the number listed. If you thought the Cubs were going to win more than 96.5 games in 2017, you would bet over for their win total. Half wins are used so there are no ties, just like point spreads.
This list shouldn’t be very surprising as all the above were expected to win their divisions before the season started. If I expanded the list to the top six, the Red Sox would be right behind the Astros – the expected AL East division champions. However, two teams are falling short of this year’s expectations – last year’s World Series participants.
It’s no secret the Cubs and Indians have been a disappointment as we approach 70 games into 2017, but they’re still being priced as heavy favorites to play in October. The public definitely has a say in this and have helped drive their prices up, but another piece of this pricing is the Preseason Win Totals that were posted back in February and March. Oddsmakers have held the odds for both teams very close to their win totals, with the Indians even being priced a little higher. This trend will most likely continue at least for another month with the expectation that both teams will eventually “flip the switch” and gear up for a postseason run. But until that happens, fading both teams can clearly generate some profit as they’re both being priced well above their current performance.
As for the other three most expensive teams, they have all outperformed their average odds. If you read my Quarterly Report a few weeks ago, you’d know the Astros had been one the most under-valued teams despite being a fairly expensive favorite on average. They have the biggest difference between their odds’ implied win probability and their actual win percentage (9.1%) among the most expensive teams, so that value has continued for Houston. It’s pretty interesting that the best team in baseball is only the fifth most expensive team, so I wouldn’t shy away from betting on them despite the big favorite pricing.
The most expensive team honor goes to the Los Angeles Dodgers, and is very interesting as to why. This is largely caused by two main factors – they had the second highest projected win total (94.5), and more importantly, they have arguably the best pitcher in baseball with Clayton Kershaw. The average money-line price for Kershaw’s starts has been -219, which implies a 68.6% win probability. Amazingly, this hasn’t been anywhere close to high enough.
In Kershaw’s 14 starts so far, the Dodgers are 12-2. They have won 85.7% of his starts, which is insane even if he is the greatest pitcher in the game. He’s basically automatic, and the numbers prove it. If you had bet to win one unit each game he started so far, you would have won 7.6 units with a 23.75% ROI. That’s incredible with that much juice.
From the table above, we can see the Dodgers have been priced much higher than their projected win total would suggest, yet they’ve still slightly outperformed their odds. This is largely because the Dodgers simply don’t lose with Kershaw on the hill. But what about when he’s not starting? The Dodgers average odds for all other games have been -145, implying a 59.2% win probability. They’re good, but I wouldn’t say they’re THAT good with the other starting pitchers they have.
In games not started by Kershaw, the Dodgers are 29-23; which gives them a 55.7% win percentage. That sounds much closer to what I would expect from Kenta Maeda, Brandon McCarthy, Alex Wood, Julio Urias, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Rich Hill starting 80% of their games. If you had bet one unit on the Dodgers for every game not started by Kershaw, you would have lost 5.7 units at this point. In summary, betting on the Dodgers has only been a winning proposition when Kershaw is pitching. This may seem counterintuitive with the heavy juice he always has (average -219 odds), but the numbers back it up. This may not be the case all season, but there is surprising value on Kershaw as a heavy favorite.
Least Expensive Teams
| Team | Avg. ML Odds | Imp. Win% | Actual Win% | Record | Win Total (Win%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| White Sox | +132.2 | 43.1% | 43.8% | 28-36 | 69.5 (42.9%) |
| Padres | +128.1 | 43.8% | 40.3% | 27-40 | 66.5 (41.0%) |
| Phillies | +125.8 | 44.3% | 32.8% | 21-43 | 72.5 (44.8%) |
| Reds | +118.8 | 45.7% | 44.6% | 29-36 | 70.5 (43.5%) |
| Brewers | +117.7 | 45.9% | 50.7% | 34-33 | 70.5 (43.5%) |
Four of the five teams above are fittingly in last place of their respective divisions. The other is in first place. Wait, what?! That’s right folks, the Milwaukee Brewers are leading the NL Central, yet are still being priced as if the past two months haven’t happened. If you read my NL Central preview, you know that I expected Milwaukee to be much improved over last season and picked them to easily go over their 70.5-win total. I didn’t think they would be this good, though. Granted, they are certainly due for some regression and will most likely finish near .500; but they would have made you a good amount of money so far had you bet them to win each game this season. They’ve been riding their starting pitching the past few weeks, so pay close attention to those numbers. If their pitching performance starts to drop, that’s probably when the money printing slows down.
Another big difference between odds and actual performance has been the Phillies, but in the opposite direction. Their average +125.8 money-line odds suggest they should win 44.3% of their games, but they have been much worse. They have won just eight of their last 30 games and are 21-43 for the season (32.8% win percentage). Last year, they were 71-91 with a league-worst -186 run differential, and are on pace to finish even worse in 2017. This is a very young team with poor starting pitching, and oddsmakers have not made Philadelphia’s odds low enough to warrant betting on them anytime soon. Unless you find a favorable situational spot for the Phillies, I would stay away.
The last team to point out is the San Diego Padres. On Opening Day, the Padres were +305 underdogs against Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers. That is not a typo. The game went as expected, and the Dodgers won comfortably 14-3. Since then though, San Diego has been relatively overpriced despite being the second least expensive team in MLB. Their win total was set at 66.5 wins by the sportsbooks, which I thought was about right and they are on pace to do exactly that. However, they’ve been priced as a 71-win team with +128 average odds. If they were priced correctly, they would be by far the least expensive team with +144 odds. But since they are priced lower, betting on them will likely not be very profitable in the long run. Fading the Padres could make sports bettors a decent profit if this kind of pricing continues.
Wrap-Up
These stats and trends can certainly change during the rest of the season, but they should be a good reference point when making betting decisions. Considering odds pricing is one of the most important things to do as a sports bettor, and now you have more information to use to beat the books.
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Thanks for reading, and good luck!