With Opening Day just a few days away and rosters being finalized, it’s time to dive into the regular season and analyze the MLB Win Totals! I’ll be covering one division at a time, going west to east in the American League and then east to west in the National League. The payout for these bets are six months away, but there are two big benefits with win totals: great value can be found, and researching helps prepare you for the daily grind of the MLB season.
The work I have put in for these projections is similar to the work for making daily picks anyways, and having an idea of how a team will perform over the course of the season will help identify value in the early parts of the season. The model I used for my MLB win total projections (and what I will use for daily picks) is centered around past performance, future projections from resources such as FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and my own analysis. I’ll write an article in the near future with more details about my model, but for now let’s dive into these win totals.
Next up...
American League Central
| Team | 2017 W-L | Win Total Odds | 2016 W-L | 2016 Pyth. W-L | Cluster Luck Runs | 2016 Exp. W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indians | 93-69 | 93.5 | 94-67 | 91-70 | 13.8 | 90-72 |
| Tigers | 80-82 | 83.5 | 86-75 | 83-79 | -33.1 | 87-75 |
| Twins | 74-88 | 74.5 | 59-103 | 66-96 | -39.0 | 69-93 |
| Royals | 73-89 | 76.5 | 81-81 | 77-85 | 36.9 | 73-89 |
| White Sox | 69-93 | 69.5 | 78-84 | 78-84 | 6.05 | 77-85 |
Cluster Luck: Similar to Third-Order Wins and Base Runs, this is my own calculation based off Joe Peta’s original findings in his book Trading Bases. It shows how lucky (positive) or unlucky (negative) a team was last season scoring and giving up runs based off predictive analytics.
Pyth. (Pythagorean) W-L: Expected 2016 record based on a formula using actual runs scored and runs given up. It is a better indicator of a team’s future performance than a team’s actual winning percentage. More info here.
Exp. Record: The expected record for each team using the same Pythagorean formula after factoring in cluster luck.
Cleveland Indians
2016: 94-67 Over/Under: 93.5 Wins Prediction: 93-69
The defending American League champs should be able to stay on top of one of the weakest divisions in baseball and will certainly contend for the World Series once again. Adding one of the top free agents during the offseason in Edwin Encarnacion is a big boost, especially because FanGraphs actually projects their offense to decline slightly. This makes sense as Cleveland hitters had a monster year last season, racking up a 27.4 WAR rating (4th in MLB) along with having a .430 slugging percentage (9th in MLB). Specifically, small regressions are expected from Cleveland’s top hitters: Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana. Losing Rajai Davis and Mike Napoli to free agency will also eat into 2016’s production. On the bright side, a healthy Michael Brantley will certainly help the cause.
The Indians pitching staff though is simply terrifying. As a Cubs fan, thank God (and Ernie Banks, Ron Santo, Harry Caray, etc.) Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar were injured during the World Series. Combine them with former Cy Young winner Corey Kluber as well as Trevor Bauer and Mike Tomlin, and you have one of the best rotations in all of baseball (projected 16.2 WAR). The pitching has a high ceiling, but health will still be a worry for Carrasco and Salazar. However, don’t forget about Andrew Miller and Cody Allen coming out of the pen for a full season.
Win Totals Bet (93.5 Wins): Pass. Despite being the top team in a weak division, 93 wins is still a big number to get over. To get there, you need healthy seasons from the whole rotation and with their history, that’s hard to see happening. There's always another bet.
Detroit Tigers
2016: 86-75 Over/Under: 83.5 Wins Prediction: 80-82
The Tigers bring back virtually the same team as last year, so should we expect the same result? Detroit was the fourth unluckiest team in the league and scored 23 less runs than expected, but their hitters are expected to decline (mainly due to age) at almost the same rate to make that a wash. Their aging core also won’t help their defense, which ranked 20th in efficiency last season.
Justin Verlander and Michael Fulmer are projected to have another good year, but veterans Jordan Zimmermann, Anibal Sanchez and Mike Pelfrey won’t be at the same level (especially if their Spring Training performances carry over). Their bullpen also overachieved last year and will come back to Earth, further causing a decline from last season.
Win Totals Bet (83.5 Wins): Under. The Tigers are aging quickly with very few (if any) reinforcements coming from the minors. The Indians should run away with the division, so the Tigers may even be sellers come July; which would cause the team to lose even more games in the final two months of the season.
Minnesota Twins
2016: 59-103 Over/Under: 74.5 Wins Prediction: 74-88
The Twins were on the wrong side of variance in multiple ways last season. Unlike the Angels, who were unlucky in regards to Pythagorean wins but the luckiest team in regards to cluster luck, the Twins pulled the short straw with both. Minnesota lost seven games more than Pythagorean would suggest, and they were also the third-unluckiest team in MLB. Factoring that in, the Twins should have won 69 games – that’s TEN more wins.
With a young team returning the same core, things can only go up from here (at least theoretically). I don’t expect the same numbers from Brian Dozier as last year, but improvements from Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, and Max Kepler aren’t out of the question. This squad should produce more offensively overall, and as long as they don’t experience the same bad luck as last year, should finish with more wins than some expect.
The pitching staff is still below average, but will see a slight improvement from last year. Kyle Gibson is expected to continue his progression, and a full season from Phil Hughes will help. The Twins are still a long way from contending, but should still outperform last year’s results by a wide margin.
Win Totals Bet (74.5 Wins): Pass. This is spot on my projections and am confident they’ll finish right around this number.
Kansas City Royals
2016: 81-81 Over/Under: 76.5 Wins Prediction: 73-89
This is the year the Royals finally fall back to reality. Kansas City has defied most projections for years now, most prominently their head-scratching 2015 World Series victory. That year, the Royals were projected to win 72 games (go to #4) according to Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system. Last year, PECOTA said 76 wins (they won 81). The Royals’ success has certainly contributed to a new wave of thinking for roster construction and resource allocation, but I’m betting regression to the mean finally catches up to them.
The Royals lost Jarrod Dyson and Kendrys Morales over the offseason, and will be needing Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain, Alex Gordon and Mike Moustakas to improve from last season. Kansas City scored the third fewest runs in the American League in 2016 and should expect about the same this year.
As for the pitching, Yordano Ventura (RIP) is a huge loss for the Royals and baseball in general. Danny Duffy is a rising star, but the rest of the rotation isn’t that impressive. Royals pitching also benefited from 32 runs worth of cluster luck, which was second only to the Angels’ whopping 53 runs. The Wade Davis for Jorge Soler trade is also looking uglier by the day, and will cause a sharp decline for the bullpen as well.
Win Totals Bet (76.5 Wins): Under. Unfortunately, the opening number of 80.5 wins was hit hard from the start and has come down by a whopping four wins, but I still say this can hit at 76.5. I don't mind being on the sharp money's side here, either.
Chicago White Sox
2016: 78-84 Over/Under: 69.5 Wins Prediction: 69-93
Once again, the oddsmakers agree with me. While PECOTA projects 76 wins (don’t ask me how), my numbers along with FanGraphs’ say 69 is more likely. Their line-up looks respectable with Jose Abreu, Todd Frazier, Melky Cabrera, and Tim Anderson; however, Adam Eaton was a huge loss. He was easily their best player last year (6.0 WAR), and losing him drops their offense to a projected cellar-dwelling 9.3 WAR collectively.
As for pitching, Chris Sale will obviously be missed but a deal the White Sox had to make. It was actually a great trade for them, as the Red Sox definitely overpaid sending top minor-league prospects Yoan Moncada (2nd overall prospect in MLB) and Michael Kopech (16th) to the South Side. The rotation is still a strong point anchored by Jose Quintana and Carlos Rodon, but you must factor in the Sox being sellers once again this summer and contenders being willing to pay up for those arms.
If the current roster were to play an entire season together, they could probably win 75-80 games. However, most of the players I just listed (aside from Anderson, Moncada and Kopech) cannot be expected to finish the season in Chicago as the team continues to rebuild. On the bright side, Baseball America's fifth best farm system will only be better come September.
Win Totals Bet (69.5 Wins): Pass. I may have been tempted to take the opening number of 73.5 for an under play, but there’s too much uncertainty regarding how many games this projected line-up will be together.
That’s all for the American League Central predictions. I’ll be publishing the remaining divisions throughout the week, so be sure to check back often! You can also follow me on Twitter and subscribe to the blog to be sure to receive the latest updates!