With Opening Day just a few days away and rosters being finalized, it’s time to dive into the regular season and analyze the MLB Win Totals! I’ll be covering one division at a time, going west to east in the American League and then east to west in the National League. The payout for these bets are six months away, but there are two big benefits with win totals: great value can be found, and researching helps prepare you for the daily grind of the MLB season.
The work I have put in for these projections is similar to the work for making daily picks anyways, and having an idea of how a team will perform over the course of the season will help identify value in the early parts of the season. The model I used for my MLB win total projections (and what I will use for daily picks) is centered around past performance, future projections from resources such as FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and my own analysis. I’ll write an article in the near future with more details about my model, but for now let’s dive into these win totals.
Next up...
American League East
| Team | 2017 W-L | Win Total Odds | 2016 W-L | 2016 Pyth. W-L | Cluster Luck Runs | 2016 Exp. W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox | 90-70 | 92.5 | 93-69 | 98-64 | -14.9 | 100-62 |
| Blue Jays | 86-76 | 85.5 | 89-73 | 91-71 | -10.4 | 91-71 |
| Yankees | 83-79 | 83.5 | 84-78 | 79-83 | 11.0 | 77-85 |
| Orioles | 82-80 | 80.5 | 89-73 | 84-78 | -1.53 | 84-78 |
| Rays | 81-81 | 78.5 | 68-94 | 77-85 | -45.2 | 81-81 |
Cluster Luck: Similar to Third-Order Wins and Base Runs, this is my own calculation based off Joe Peta’s original findings in his book Trading Bases. It shows how lucky (positive) or unlucky (negative) a team was last season scoring and giving up runs based off predictive analytics.
Pyth. (Pythagorean) W-L: Expected 2016 record based on a formula using actual runs scored and runs given up. It is a better indicator of a team’s future performance than a team’s actual winning percentage. More info here.
Exp. Record: The expected record for each team using the same Pythagorean formula after factoring in cluster luck.
Boston Red Sox
2016: 93-69 Over/Under: 92.5 Wins Prediction: 90-70
These guys are the favorites to win the American League pennant for a reason. They won 93 games last year, and probably should have won even more. Based purely on the runs they scored and gave up, they should have won 98 games according to the Pythagorean theorem (of baseball). To add to that, the Red Sox finished 20th in cluster luck, which would expect them to get up to 100 wins if variance hadn’t worked against them. So why am I projecting just 90 wins this year?
First, last year’s offensive production will be incredibly difficult to duplicate. They were by far the best team in offensive efficiency and were one of two teams to have five hitters finish with a WAR rating of 4.0 or higher (the Cubs were the other, surprise). A bit of regression on offense is safe to assume here. The Red Sox are also missing one of those hitters with David Ortiz’s retirement (at least for now). Boston is still expected to have an incredible offense with a projected 23.6 WAR, but that’s a far cry from last year’s ridiculous 34.1 WAR.
As I mentioned in my AL Central post, the Red Sox acquired a guy named Chris Sale from the White Sox. He’s arguably the best pitcher in the American League, and is joining last year’s AL Cy Young winner Rick Porcello and 2012 Cy Young winner David Price. This three headed armed monster is expected to give Boston the best rotation in the American League. However, one of those arms (Price) has a bad elbow. Luckily, he doesn’t need Tommy John surgery, but his return is uncertain.
Win Totals Bet (92.5 Wins): Under. Mainly due to David Price’s health, my prediction is a conservative 90 wins. This offense has the potential to light up scoreboards once again (or in Fenway’s case, manually insert the big numbers), but the AL East is a competitive division and could be a close race.
Toronto Blue Jays
2016: 89-73 Over/Under: 85.5 Wins Prediction: 86-76
Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA projections interestingly has Toronto as an 81 team this season. Edwin Encarnacion and his 42 home runs from 2016 moving to Cleveland is a loss, but not as big as most are making it out to be. This line-up is still one of the best in baseball, and FanGraphs actually projects zero drop-off in terms of overall production. Toronto still has 2015 AL MVP Josh Donaldson, and Joey Bats is expected to bounce back from his 1.4 WAR performance last season. They also have fellow baseball smashers Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, and Kevin Pillar. Kendrys Morales is also a nice addition, who should see a power spike in the Rogers Centre after playing half his games at spacious Kauffman Stadium for the Royals.
The Blue Jays also have a strong rotation of their own, headed by the American League’s 2016 ERA leader in Aaron Sanchez. His FIP did suggest he should have given up more runs though, so don’t expect the same performance this season. Nonetheless, a pitching staff led by Sanchez, Marcus Stroman, and J.A. Happ will be one of the best in the American League.
Win Totals Bet (85.5 Wins): Pass. This is simply too close to my projection of 86 wins.
New York Yankees
2016: 84-78 Over/Under: 83.5 Wins Prediction: 83-79
Growing up in the 90’s, as a kid I would think you were crazy if you told me I’d be writing about the Yankees finishing anything less than second place in the AL East. But here we are. Yankee fans are certainly excited about the new kids Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird and Aaron Judge to be the new core. Sanchez notably hit 20 home runs in just 53 games last season, and as impressive as that is, it’s a very small sample size. I’m not saying he’s going to be the next Shane Spencer, but he still has to prove himself.
The Yankees also overachieved considering their actual production. They were outscored by 22 runs during the season, which would expect a below .500 record of 79-83. My cluster luck numbers agree and say this should have been a 77-win team. But even if you ignore those numbers, the Yankees went 24-12 in one-run games. Since we also had the Rangers mythological success in that regard last season (they were 36-11), this is not being considered as the ridiculous anomaly that is really was. This leaves us with a much lower base, as last year’s team actually had the talent and production for 76-78 wins.
The Yankees offense should improve slightly with progress from the young core, but there’s very little talent surrounding them in that line-up. Starting pitching is also a mess since Masahiro Tanaka can’t pitch every day. That leaves a rotation with Michael Pineda, CC Sabathia, Luis Severino and Bryan Mitchell. The bullpen appears above average with Aroldis Chapman returning to the Bronx, and Dellin Betances is a solid reliever. However, who else is there? People are being too high on Tyler Clippard, and no Yankee reliever not named Chapman or Betances is projected to finish with a WAR rating above 0.4 or a FIP below 3.70. That is not a winning bunch of pitchers expected to throw 500 innings.
Win Totals Bet (83.5 Wins): Pass. I’m clearly not drinking the Yankees/Gary Sanchez Kool-Aid, but I could be proven wrong. Young teams are tougher to predict, so I’m going to stay away.
Baltimore Orioles
2016: 89-73 Over/Under: 80.5 Wins Prediction: 82-80
The Orioles are a tough case to crack. Last year, PECOTA predicted them to win just 72 games, yet they made it to the AL Wild Card Game. Of course, they were bounced in extra innings by the Blue Jays courtesy of Edwin Encarnacion, but it was still quite an over-achievement. PECOTA wasn’t completely wrong either – the Orioles were one of the “luckier” teams last season. Pythagorean and my cluster luck calculations suggest they should have won just 84 games and miss the playoffs completely.
The oddsmakers believe they’ll fall even further this year, and PECOTA once again has Baltimore struggling to 74 wins, but my projections suggest otherwise. They bring back the same dinger-fueled offense, and their pitching should improve on top of that. Losing Yovani Gallardo is a huge plus (4.65 BB/9, 1.22 HR/9 last season – that’s not good), and Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy look to take another step forward in 2017. Lastly, any team with a bullpen led by Zach Britton is in good shape. In case you didn’t hear, he broke the major-league record with a 0.54 ERA last season. I don’t expect another record year, but he’s still one of the best closers in the game.
Win Totals Bet (80.5 Wins): Over. Keeping all else equal (i.e no variance, cluster luck, etc.), I don’t expect the Orioles to be outscored this season with such a slugger filled offense. In other words, it’s safe to say they will finish above .500 and surpass 80 wins.
Tampa Bay Rays
2016: 68-94 Over/Under: 78.5 Wins Prediction: 81-81
If the Rangers had everything go right last season, the Rays had the opposite luck. Tampa finished last season with just 68 wins, while their run differential suggests they should have won 77 games. To add on that misfortune, the Rays had the second-worst cluster luck to the tune of 45 runs. If variance didn’t go against them, they would have been a .500 team and had won 81 games. And on top of that, the Rays had a league-worst 13-27 record in one-run games. With that as our new base, the Rays suddenly look like a team to watch out for.
Of course, we can’t simply expect the exact same production as last year. Management traded Logan Forsythe to the Dodgers, who was the team’s third best hitter, and Evan Longoria was not pleased. However, Kevin Kiermaier is expected to have an even better season and Longoria is still churning out 4.0 WAR seasons. Longoria even started doing Pilates thanks to a suggestion from Jake Arrieta (and has also grown an Arrieta-esque beard). All in all, FanGraphs projects a slight improvement on the offensive side.
The Rays will also see better performance from the mound as well. Chris Archer will be in the running for Cy Young, and Jake Odorizzi and Alex Cobb are a solid supporting cast. Overall, Tampa is projected to have the fourth best rotation in the American League. The bullpen is a weak spot, but should still improve from 2016’s pitiful 0.2 WAR rating.
Win Totals Bet (78.5 Wins): Over. The Rays are once again flying under the radar with sneaky young talent. Some might be afraid that they are sellers come the trade deadline, but this team is closer to contending than most realize. I don’t see them trading any key pieces, and as long as they don’t have the same misfortunes as last year, should be a near .500 team.
That’s all for the American League East predictions. I’ll be publishing the remaining divisions throughout the week, so be sure to check back often! You can also follow me on Twitter and subscribe to the blog to be sure to receive the latest updates!