With Opening Day just a few days away and rosters being finalized, it’s time to dive into the regular season and analyze the MLB Win Totals! I’ll be covering one division at a time, going west to east in the American League and then east to west in the National League. The payout for these bets are six months away, but there are two big benefits with win totals: great value can be found, and researching helps prepare you for the daily grind of the MLB season.
The work I have put in for these projections is similar to the work for making daily picks anyways, and having an idea of how a team will perform over the course of the season will help identify value in the early parts of the season. The model I used for my MLB win total projections (and what I will use for daily picks) is centered around past performance, future projections from resources such as FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and my own analysis. I’ll write an article in the near future with more details about my model, but for now let’s dive into these win totals.
Leading things off...
American League West
| Team | 2017 W-L | Win Total Odds | 2016 W-L | 2016 Pyth. W-L | Cluster Luck Runs | 2016 Exp. W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Astros | 91-71 | 90.5 | 84-78 | 83-79 | 27.9 | 80-82 |
| Mariners | 84-78 | 85.5 | 86-76 | 87-75 | 28.6 | 84-78 |
| Angels | 83-79 | 79.5 | 74-88 | 80-82 | 86.9 | 71-91 |
| Rangers | 81-81 | 85.5 | 95-67 | 82-80 | 13.6 | 80-82 |
| Athletics | 75-87 | 73.5 | 69-93 | 70-92 | -31.0 | 73-89 |
Cluster Luck: Similar to Third-Order Wins and Base Runs, this is my own calculation based off Joe Peta’s original findings in his book Trading Bases. It shows how lucky (positive) or unlucky (negative) a team was last season scoring and giving up runs based off predictive analytics.
Pyth. (Pythagorean) W-L: Expected 2016 record based on a formula using actual runs scored and runs given up. It is a better indicator of a team’s future performance than a team’s actual winning percentage. More info here.
Exp. Record: The expected record for each team using the same Pythagorean formula after factoring in cluster luck.
Houston Astros
2016: 84-78 Over/Under: 90.5 Wins Prediction: 91-71
Remember this from March 2016? Me too, and I couldn't have been happier as a Cubs fan. No Sports Illustrated curse!! The Astros will be a dangerous team once again this year, and Sports Illustrated could very well be right this time with their prediction from 2014. However, Houston was right behind the Mariners in cluster luck last season, so their 84-78 finish is a bit misleading. On a positive note, they should see a nice improvement on offense thanks to the additions of Carlos Beltran, Josh Reddick and Brian McCann. And don’t sleep on 2015’s second overall pick Alex Bregman as he is expected to play his first full season with the club.
Their starting pitching should also improve as they are hoping for better seasons from Dallas Keuchel and Lance McCullers. However, I predict a decline in their bullpen. Houston relievers led the league last season with 7.9 wins above replacement (WAR), a whole 1.3 wins better than the next team (which is a large margin). Bullpen performance is highly volatile, so I expect a good-sized regression here. Astros pitchers also benefited from 30.3 runs of cluster luck, which certainly helped prop up the bullpen’s 7.9 WAR.
Win Totals Bet (90.5 Wins): Pass. The Astros should win the AL West relatively easily, but there will be question marks heading into October with such a young core. My prediction is 91 wins, so we'll look for value elsewhere.
Seattle Mariners
2016: 86-76 Over/Under: 85.5 Wins Prediction: 84-78
There's some rumblings within the baseball interwebs that the Mariners could outpace the Astros in the AL West. Child please. Now, I expect an identical offense to last year with less reliance on Robinson Cano, Nelson Cruz and Kyle Seager. The addition of Jean Segura will be a huge boost and should offset the 28.6 runs the Mariners benefited from last year from cluster luck (6th highest in MLB). BUT, it still won't be enough.
A first-place finish will rely heavily on a bounce back year from the pitching staff. FanGraphs projects a 4.6 WAR improvement for the rotation, mainly thanks to the additions of Drew Smyly and Yovani Gallardo. However, King Felix will still need to find some of his old form, and successful, healthy seasons from James Paxton and Hisashi Iwakuma are needed for the division crown. Additionally, 22.8 of Seattle’s 28.6 cluster luck runs came from their pitching, so expect some regression here as well.
Win Totals Bet (85.5 Wins): Pass. With the reliance on a healthy rotation and better performance from Felix Hernandez, the current 85.5 win total is too close to my 84 win projection with this uncertainty. Unless everything goes perfectly, I expect a second place finish for the M's.
Anaheim Los Angeles Angels
2016: 74-88 Over/Under: 79.5 Wins Prediction: 83-79
The Angels had a very interesting season from a sabermetrics viewpoint. Many will argue that they were unlucky based on their Pythagorean win percentage, which suggests they should have won 80 games instead of just 74. By this standard, they were the third unluckiest team in baseball. However, based on my cluster luck calculations (as well as The Power Rank’s own numbers), the Angels were actually THE LUCKIEST team in all of MLB in terms of runs scored and allowed. In all, they should have scored 34 less runs and given up 53 more runs than they actually did. Taking this into account, my numbers say they should have only won 71 games – a far cry from the 80 wins originally suggested.
How does this help us this season? First, it gives us a lower base to start from. I’m sure many writers and “experts” will use the Angels’ 2016 Pythagorean record to base their argument for the team to finish over .500 this season. Starting at 80 vs. 71 is a huge difference. However, I'll split the difference and say everything evened out in the end.
On the positive side, adding Cameron Maybin, Luis Valbuena and Danny Espinosa will help improve both the offense and the defense (21st in defensive efficiency last season). Additionally, expect a big improvement from the rotation. The Angels are expected to have the largest starting pitching improvement based on WAR, going from 5.6 to 13.4. Starting pitchers not named Matt Shoemaker combined to contribute a 2.3 WAR for 2016. Shoemaker had a 3.3 WAR rating on his own last year. This will certainly help the Angels win a few more games in 2017. Oh, and they still have Mike Trout who basically breaks the WAR statistic every season.
Win Totals Bet (79.5 Wins): Over. Not only does my model project this team to win 83 games, but the Angels could very well compete for a wild card. It's also important to note that their win total opened at 76.5 wins last month, so the sharp money is clearly in agreement.
Texas Rangers
2016: 95-67 Over/Under: 85.5 Wins Prediction: 81-81
The Rangers had BY FAR the luckiest season in the history of baseball. I can’t guarantee that’s correct, but I’d bet on it. Here is how they earned this grand title:
- They went 36-11 in one run games. In what are theoretically toss-ups, the Rangers won at a 76.6% clip. The next best team? The Yankees went 24-12 (66.7%), which would typically be amazing on its own. And for reference, the Cubs were 22-23 in one run games last year.
- The Rangers had a run differential of 8 runs. No that is not a typo, they scored 765 runs and gave up 757 runs. We don’t need the Pythagorean theorem to tell us they should have been a .500 team. Since they won 36 of their 95 games by just one run, it’s safe to say that they were blown out often in their 67 losses without checking their results.
- I’m a nerd though and checked their results – they lost by an average of FOUR RUNS. They also lost 24 games by five or more runs. This was a supposed 95 win team.
- On top of outpacing their expected record by 13 games and truly defying the odds, they also benefited from 15 runs worth of cluster luck on offense; which would drop their expected record even more to 80-82.
- They won 95 games despite their bullpen collectively earning a pitiful 1.7 WAR (24th in MLB).
When it counted though, the universe was rebalanced and the Rangers were swept out of the playoffs in the ALDS by the Blue Jays. The way they were eliminated was pretty symbolic of their season I might add.
The Rangers were a baseball bettor’s biggest frustration last year, but what about this year? Their win total currently sits at 85.5, which may surprise the average fan coming off 95 wins, but my projections say 81 wins (surprise). They will score plenty of runs thanks to the addition of Mike Napoli and a full season from Jonathon Lucroy, but I don’t see much improvement from last year. Ian Desmond is gone and Adrian Beltre is expected to produce less (projected 4.0 WAR vs. 6.1 last year).
Their bullpen will be better simply because it can’t possibly be worse than last year, but their rotation is the biggest worry. Yu Darvish and Cole Hamels unfortunately can’t pitch every day, and there isn’t much talent after them. Combine that with 38 games against the rising Mariners and Astros, and you get an unlikely path over 85 wins.
Win Totals Bet (85.5 Wins): Under. Despite a win total 10 below they're record from 2016, the numbers still suggest they'll under-perform this mark. With a 4.5 win cushion from my projection of 81 wins, I'll gladly take it.
Oakland Athletics
2016: 69-93 Over/Under: 73.5 Wins Prediction: 75-87
There isn't much to say about the A's here. On the bright side, their hitters are expected to improve from a league worst 4.4 collective WAR in 2016 to 14.2 in 2017. To put that in perspective, the next worst hitting team, the Braves, had a 10.0 WAR rating in 2016. That should definitely add on a few more wins on its own.
That is a huge jump, but the main reason being that they were just so bad last season. They scored an AL worst 653 runs. Six players with at least 200 at-bats had a negative WAR rating. That implies a minor-league player would have been a better option than the guys they put out on the field. On the positive side, they did add some talent with Rajai Davis (still shudder when I hear his name), Matt Joyce and Trevor Plouffe. In summary, they can’t be as bad as last year.
Their pitching will ultimately determine if they improve from last season’s 69-win performance. Unfortunately, Sonny Gray is already injured and not expected back until late April at the earliest. That leaves the A’s with Kendall Graveman, Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton at the top of the rotation, but will be a solid supporting cast when/if Gray returns. It's important to factor in though that the A's will be sellers come the trade deadline, so top pitchers such as Gray are most likely on the move.
Win Totals Bet (73.5 Wins): Pass. This team will be an improvement from 2016, but there's too many question marks to risk an over bet.
That’s all for the American League West predictions. To recap, I'm picking Over 79.5 wins for the Angels and Under 85.5 wins for the Rangers. I’ll be publishing the remaining divisions throughout the week, so be sure to check back often! You can also follow me on Twitter and subscribe to the blog to be sure to receive the latest updates!