With Opening Day just a few days away and rosters being finalized, it’s time to dive into the regular season and analyze the MLB Win Totals! I’ll be covering one division at a time, going west to east in the American League and then east to west in the National League. The payout for these bets are six months away, but there are two big benefits with win totals: great value can be found, and researching helps prepare you for the daily grind of the MLB season.
The work I have put in for these projections is similar to the work for making daily picks anyways, and having an idea of how a team will perform over the course of the season will help identify value in the early parts of the season. The model I used for my MLB win total projections (and what I will use for daily picks) is centered around past performance, future projections from resources such as FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and my own analysis. I’ll write an article in the near future with more details about my model, but for now let’s dive into these win totals.
Next up...
National League Central
| Team | 2017 W-L | Win Total Odds | 2016 W-L | 2016 Pyth. W-L | Cluster Luck Runs | 2016 Exp. W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cubs | 95-67 | 96.5 | 103-58 | 107-54 | -11.6 | 109-53 |
| Cardinals | 84-78 | 83.5 | 86-76 | 88-74 | -27.9 | 90-72 |
| Pirates | 82-80 | 83.0 | 78-83 | 78-83 | +47.5 | 73-89 |
| Brewers | 72-90 | 70.5 | 73-89 | 74-88 | +5.71 | 74-88 |
| Reds | 70-92 | 70.5 | 68-94 | 68-94 | +46.9 | 63-99 |
Cluster Luck: Similar to Third-Order Wins and Base Runs, this is my own calculation based off Joe Peta’s original findings in his book Trading Bases. It shows how lucky (positive) or unlucky (negative) a team was last season scoring and giving up runs based off predictive analytics.
Pyth. (Pythagorean) W-L: Expected 2016 record based on a formula using actual runs scored and runs given up. It is a better indicator of a team’s future performance than a team’s actual winning percentage. More info here.
Exp. Record: The expected record for each team using the same Pythagorean formula after factoring in cluster luck.
Chicago Cubs
2016: 103-58 Over/Under: 96.5 Wins Prediction: 95-67
It happened. November 2, 2016, was (and probably always will be) the happiest day of my life. So, will they do it again? Of course they will, but we’re focused on how many games they will win this season. The Cubbies bring back virtually the same team as last year, but with a few key pieces missing. In my opinion, the biggest loss is Dexter Fowler.
Some might be surprised that he was the Cubs third best hitter last year, but it’s true. He had a career year as the Cubbies lead-off man with a 4.7 WAR rating along with a .393 OBP. That’s going to be tough to replace, but Theo aims to do that with Jon Jay and Albert Almora. They won’t collectively produce the same results as Fowler, but this line-up has enough to get by. Almora is also a better defender than Fowler, and will grow into more playing time as the season continues.
Another hopeful bonus for the North Siders will be Jason Heyward hitting like Jason Heyward pre-2016. He finished last season with a .230 batting average and 1.7 WAR, and he is simply too athletic to have another season like this. FanGraphs projects a conservative .263/.341/.402 slash-line for this season, and even that would be a huge step up. If it doesn’t happen though, at least his arm and glove still work.
Third, the Cubs have a full season with Bath Ruth 2.0 – Kyle Schwarber. This dude is a baseball’s worst nightmare (and the Cardinals’). Yes, he’s not the greatest fielder, and will cause a decline in the Cubs outrageously incredible defense when he’s in left field. However, the Schwarbino will smash enough baseballs to make up for it. Plus, the Cubs have 10 games at American League parks where he can be the DH. It's not a huge chunk, but it helps.
Lastly, a huge reason for the Cubs winning 103 games was the health of their pitching. Not one starter went to the DL in 2016, which is extremely rare and can’t be relied on again. However, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, Kyle Hendricks and Jon Lackey make up arguably the best rotation in baseball, and Brett Anderson and Mike Montgomery add needed depth. Joe Maddon is free to go to a six-man rotation when needed with these two, or has an above average replacement if any of the main four arms go down.
The bullpen appears to have taken a step back by losing flamethrower Aroldis Chapman and inning-eater/utility-player Travis Wood, but Cubs’ relievers are actually projected to be better than last year. Wade Davis was a huge pick-up via a great trade, and the bullpen has a trio of talented young arms in Hector Rondon, Pedro Strop, and Carl Edwards.
Win Totals Bet (96.5 Wins): Pass. Business will be booming at Bryzzo Souvenir Company and my numbers project the Cubs to win 95 games. However, getting over 96 wins will require a perfectly healthy season for the second year in a row for Cubs’ pitchers. It’s going to be another fun summer in Wrigleyville, but I’ll pass on this.
St. Louis Cardinals
2016: 86-76 Over/Under: 83.5 Wins Prediction: 85-77
I was shocked to see the Cardinals win total this low at 83.5 wins. Yes, losing Alex Reyes for the season due to Tommy John surgery is a big hit. Starting pitching is still one of the weaker spots for St. Louis now, but Carlos Martinez is fantastic, and the back-end of Mike Leake, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha can still produce. The rotation is not anything near the Cubs talent level, but it’s better than many others. The bullpen is also expected to be above average as well.
The big concern for the Cardinals though is their defense. Last season, they were uncharacteristically horrible in the field. St. Louis finished 24th in defensive efficiency - not exactly the Cardinal Way. It should be a bit better this season, simply because it can’t possibly get worse. Cardinal fans may think Dexter Fowler is going to help with this, but he’s not a great fielder and is mainly there for his bat.
Despite these shortcomings, I still think the Cardinals get over 83.5 wins. They finished with the sixth-worst cluster luck in the league, which amounts to four games they should not have had lost. Granted, some of that could very well be from poor defense, but the Cardinals should have won 90 games last season. If they can get the same production in hitting and pitching, along with a slightly better defense, St. Louis can easily get over their win total.
Win Totals Bet (83.5 Wins): Over. This is the St. Louis Cardinals we’re talking about. They don’t know how to have a losing season. Despite losing Alex Reyes, they still have a talent-filled roster in an otherwise lackluster division outside Chicago. They should rack up plenty of wins against the Pirates, Brewers and Reds.
Pittsburgh Pirates
2016: 78-84 Over/Under: 83.0 Wins Prediction: 82-80
The Pirates didn’t have a lot go right last year. Andrew McCutchen, the former NL MVP, had the worst season of his career. Additionally, Pittsburgh’s pitching had massive health issues throughout the 2016 campaign. No starter pitched more than 120 innings, and caused the Pirates to use 14 different starters throughout the season. If this rotation can stay healthy, Pittsburgh should be a big improvement as FanGraphs projects 13.7 WAR for the group compared to 7.1 WAR last year.
The offense should also see enhanced performance, but only if McCutchen gets back to being his usual self. He’s starting to age so I’m not expecting an MVP type season, but a 3+ WAR is not out of the question. This may possibly be cancelled out though by Jung Ho Kang not playing. If you’re not aware, Kang was investigated for sexual assault last summer, and was later arrested for his third DUI in Korea in December. Because of this, the U.S. Embassy has denied Kang’s application for a work visa. He was projected to produce a 3.1 WAR rating this season, so this is a huge blow if he can’t play for Pittsburgh.
Lastly, the Pirates had the third-worst defense in 2016. Moving Starling Marte to centerfield will help quite a bit, but they will need huge improvements from their other seven position players just to have an average defense overall.
Win Totals Bet (83.0 Wins): Pass. This team has too many question marks, especially with Jung Ho Kang and their pitching health.
Milwaukee Brewers
2016: 73-89 Over/Under: 70.5 Wins Prediction: 72-90
The Brewers are going to surprise a lot of people this season. I don’t mean in a “contend for a playoff spot” surprise, but in a “they won’t totally suck and lose 90+ games” surprise. Milwaukee has some talented young hitters in Keon Broxton, Jonathan Villar and Orlando Arcia, and they can support an aging but still productive Ryan Braun*. The Brewers also made smart acquisitions with Travis Shaw, Jett Bandy and Korean sensation Eric Thames. Will Thames’ 40 home runs the past two seasons in Korea translate back to the big leagues? Probably not, but he still has good upside and will help this offense replace Jonathon Lucroy’s production.
The pitching is also starting to come around. Zach Davies and Junior Guerra can develop into a solid 1-2 punch for the Brew Crew. Unfortunately, the talent drops off after that as Jimmy Nelson, Wily Peralta and Matt Garza are all on the decline. The bullpen is also an issue again this season, with a projected collective WAR of just 2.6.
*Side story about Ryan Braun – In high school, I went to a Cubs game with a bunch of friends and we sat in the left field bleachers. It was Braun’s third season, and had been moved from third base to left field because he was so bad at fielding - he made 26 errors at third. We knew this, and heckled the crap out of him for it. He definitely heard us because he made not one, but two errors that day. I can’t remember if the Cubs won or not (it was 2009, so I doubt it), but I do remember that.
Win Totals Bet (70.5 Wins): Over. Jonathon Lucroy’s bat will be missed, but Milwaukee should expect similar production on offense and slightly improved pitching. They won’t be worse than last year’s 73 win club and will clear 70 wins come September.
Cincinnati Reds
2016: 68-94 Over/Under: 70.5 Wins Prediction: 70-92
Unlike Milwaukee, there is not much promise in Cincinnati. Joey Votto, Billy Hamilton and Jose Peraza all finished last season strong and hope to build on that. Sadly, there isn’t much talent surrounding them in that line-up. Expectations on offense are almost identical to last year’s results according to FanGraphs, so don’t expect much improvement at the plate. The Reds also benefited from 29 extra runs on offense from cluster luck, third most in the league. This drops expectations even further and puts my projections at under 700 runs scored for this season.
There should be a slight improvement in pitching, but mainly because the Reds were just so bad last year. Their rotation earned 3.0 WAR while the bullpen somehow finished with -3.4 WAR. This gives room for a huge upgrade if they can just pitch like an actual major league team. If they can do that, they will “only” give up around 800 runs.
Win Totals Bet (72.5 Wins): Under. This team is just as terrible as last year. They were the third luckiest team with cluster luck, and should have lost five more games. Their talent level did not improve by seven games and will be the cellar-dweller of the NL Central once again.
That’s all for my National League Central predictions and a wrap for my MLB Win Totals series. Hope you enjoyed them, learned some things, and are ready for Opening Day! You can follow along with my picks and analysis on Twitter and subscribe to the blog for the latest updates!