With Opening Day just a few days away and rosters being finalized, it’s time to dive into the regular season and analyze the MLB Win Totals! I’ll be covering one division at a time, going west to east in the American League and then east to west in the National League. The payout for these bets are six months away, but there are two big benefits with win totals: great value can be found, and researching helps prepare you for the daily grind of the MLB season.
The work I have put in for these projections is similar to the work for making daily picks anyways, and having an idea of how a team will perform over the course of the season will help identify value in the early parts of the season. The model I used for my MLB win total projections (and what I will use for daily picks) is centered around past performance, future projections from resources such as FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and my own analysis. I’ll write an article in the near future with more details about my model, but for now let’s dive into these win totals.
Next up...
National League East
| Team | 2017 W-L | Win Total Odds | 2016 W-L | 2016 Pyth. W-L | Cluster Luck Runs | 2016 Exp. W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nationals | 89-73 | 91.5 | 95-67 | 97-65 | +22.3 | 95-67 |
| Mets | 85-77 | 87.5 | 87-75 | 87-75 | -0.62 | 87-75 |
| Marlins | 76-86 | 76.5 | 79-82 | 78-83 | -20.9 | 80-82 |
| Phillies | 74-88 | 72.5 | 71-91 | 62-100 | -21.9 | 64-98 |
| Braves | 69-93 | 74.5 | 68-93 | 67-94 | -54.7 | 73-89 |
Cluster Luck: Similar to Third-Order Wins and Base Runs, this is my own calculation based off Joe Peta’s original findings in his book Trading Bases. It shows how lucky (positive) or unlucky (negative) a team was last season scoring and giving up runs based off predictive analytics.
Pyth. (Pythagorean) W-L: Expected 2016 record based on a formula using actual runs scored and runs given up. It is a better indicator of a team’s future performance than a team’s actual winning percentage. More info here.
Exp. Record: The expected record for each team using the same Pythagorean formula after factoring in cluster luck.
Washington Nationals
2016: 95-67 Over/Under: 91.5 Wins Prediction: 89-73
The Nationals won 95 games last season and ranked fourth in runs scored despite Bryce Harper being their third best hitter. Trea Turner and Anthony Rendon are expected to have outstanding seasons once again, but not quite at the same level. Therefore, Washington is going to need a big bounce back year from Harper if they want to eclipse 90 wins again in 2017. Daniel Murphy is still extremely dangerous though, and the signing Adam Eaton is going to help the team both at the plate and in the field. The Nationals can easily have five All-Stars in their line-up.
Their rotation is just as loaded. They finished second in the National League in ERA and are projected to have a similar performance this season. Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg are possibly the best 1-2 punch, and Gio Gonzalez, Tanner Roark and Joe Ross are no slouches either. The big question is how will the bullpen hold up with the departure of Mark Melancon. Washington has serviceable arms in Shawn Kelley, Koda Glover and Blake Treinen, but someone will have to step up to be the established closer.
Win Totals Bet (91.5 Wins): Pass. The Nationals definitely have the talent for another 90+ win season and division championship. However, it mainly rides on Bryce Harper returning to his MVP caliber and the bullpen. That’s too many question marks for me.
New York Mets
2016: 87-75 Over/Under: 87.5 Wins Prediction: 85-77
The Nationals have an outstanding rotation, but the Mets have an even better one. They have the luxury of two aces in Noah Syndergaard and Jacob DeGrom, while having Steven Matz, Matt Harvey and Robert Gsellman not that far behind in talent. Health will be a concern though, especially with Harvey and now Matz. The bullpen should also see a reasonable decline from 2016 after a stunning 6.5 WAR performance. Their best reliever and closer, Jeurys Familia, is also suspended to start the season for 15 games.
The Mets don’t have a bad offense, but they don’t necessarily have a dangerous line-up. FanGraphs projects a 3.5 WAR decrease, and fielding isn’t a strength for these guys, either. The Mets ranked 17th in defensive efficiency last year; only the Orioles were worse amongst playoff teams. They’re going to have a hard time scoring over 700 runs while keeping opponents under that mark.
Win Totals Bet (87.5 Wins): Under. The rotation is one of the best in the league, but are susceptible to injuries. The offense also doesn’t give me much confidence, and their defense is going to give up plenty of runs.
Miami Marlins
2016: 79-83 Over/Under: 76.5 Wins Prediction: 76-86
Jose Fernandez will be missed dearly on the mound and in the clubhouse. Marlins management elected to bring in inning eaters (Edinson Volquez, Dan Straily) rather than an expensive ace, which makes sense with the current state of the team. That still means a significant drop in starting pitching performance, and the bullpen didn’t improve either. Kyle Barraclough is the only reliever projected to have a WAR rating above 1.0, and even that isn’t good. Expect this pitching staff to give up over 700 runs this season.
To make things worse, the offense is going to have a tough time scoring enough runs. They have the talent to cause some damage, but staying healthy is key – especially for Giancarlo Stanton. The Marlins were a bit on the unlucky side in terms of cluster luck by scoring 20 runs less than expected, but that still puts projections under 700 total runs scored. That makes them a sub .500 team, and 76 wins seems likely.
Win Totals Bet (76.5 Wins): Pass. This number is spot on with my projections, and their ceiling seems pretty low even if everything were to go right.
Philadelphia Phillies
2016: 71-91 Over/Under: 72.5 Wins Prediction: 74-88
The Phillies lost 91 games last year, but they should have lost even more. Based on the runs they scored (610) and allowed (796), a team would be expected to lose 100 games. With that as our new base, what should we expect this year?
Philadelphia got great performances from their young core in 2016, and expect their progression to continue this year. The offense is expected to improve as a whole, and their rotation is also underrated. Aaron Nola could have a breakout year, and he has above average support with Vince Velasquez and Jerad Eickhoff. They should also see better play from the bullpen, but that’s mainly because it was so dreadful last season (0.5 WAR).
There’s a lot to be positive about with the Phillies, but they’re still a young team. They’re going to have trouble scoring runs, and they will once again have one of the worst defenses in the league. Starting pitching could keep them in quite a few games, but the bullpen will struggle holding on to any leads they have.
Win Totals Bet (72.5 Wins): Pass. With last year’s team performing at a 62-win level, it would take a huge jump in performance to get over 72 wins as my model predicts. I'm not so confident about this one, so I'll pass on this one.
Atlanta Braves
2016: 68-94 Over/Under: 74.5 Wins Prediction: 69-93
The Braves win total opened at 71.5 wins back in February and is now all the way up to 74.5, and for good reason. First, Atlanta was the unluckiest team in baseball with cluster luck. Had they not gotten the variance short straw, they may have won five more games. Their young core is also on the rise, including prized-prospect Dansby Swanson making the Opening Day roster. Matt Kemp and Brandon Phillips also join the line-up, but they’re both on the decline.
The Braves should also improve on the mound, as they had 12 different pitchers start at least four games last season. This year, they have five starters expected to pitch 150 or more innings. That’s going to make a huge difference, but it likely won’t help lower last year’s 4.51 ERA. Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia and R.A. Dickey were added in the offseason, but they haven’t exactly been known for their low ERAs the past few seasons. They will eat up plenty of innings though, which will help offset Atlanta’s horrendous bullpen.
Win Totals Bet (74.5 Wins): Under. Sharp money has pushed this number too high in my opinion, so I believe the value is there to take the other side. The Braves have solid young talent and enough pitching to improve from last year, but like the Padres, are still in the early stages of their rebuild.
That’s all for the National League East predictions. I’ll be publishing the remaining divisions throughout the week, so be sure to check back often! You can also follow me on Twitter and subscribe to the blog to be sure to receive the latest updates!