With Opening Day just a few days away and rosters being finalized, it’s time to dive into the regular season and analyze the MLB Win Totals! I’ll be covering one division at a time, going west to east in the American League and then east to west in the National League. The payout for these bets are six months away, but there are two big benefits with win totals: great value can be found, and researching helps prepare you for the daily grind of the MLB season.
The work I have put in for these projections is similar to the work for making daily picks anyways, and having an idea of how a team will perform over the course of the season will help identify value in the early parts of the season. The model I used for my MLB win total projections (and what I will use for daily picks) is centered around past performance, future projections from resources such as FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and my own analysis. I’ll write an article in the near future with more details about my model, but for now let’s dive into these win totals.
Next up...
National League West
| Team | 2017 W-L | Win Total Odds | 2016 W-L | 2016 Pyth. W-L | Cluster Luck Runs | 2016 Exp. W-L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dodgers | 97-65 | 94.5 | 91-71 | 90-72 | -10.6 | 92-70 |
| Giants | 87-75 | 88.5 | 87-75 | 90-72 | +19.7 | 88-74 |
| Rockies | 76-86 | 80.5 | 75-87 | 80-82 | -19.7 | 81-81 |
| Diamondbacks | 73-89 | 77.5 | 69-93 | 69-93 | -27.7 | 71-91 |
| Padres | 68-84 | 66.5 | 68-84 | 72-90 | +39.4 | 67-95 |
Cluster Luck: Similar to Third-Order Wins and Base Runs, this is my own calculation based off Joe Peta’s original findings in his book Trading Bases. It shows how lucky (positive) or unlucky (negative) a team was last season scoring and giving up runs based off predictive analytics.
Pyth. (Pythagorean) W-L: Expected 2016 record based on a formula using actual runs scored and runs given up. It is a better indicator of a team’s future performance than a team’s actual winning percentage. More info here.
Exp. Record: The expected record for each team using the same Pythagorean formula after factoring in cluster luck.
Los Angeles Dodgers
2016: 91-71 Over/Under: 94.5 Wins Prediction: 97-65
After advancing to the NLCS last season, the Dodgers return with their $240 million payroll to contend for the National League pennant. Bettors definitely think they will as LA’s opening win total number of 91.5 has been pushed up to 94.5, which is a pretty significant move. PECOTA, typically a conservative projection system, has them winning even more at 97 games, which makes me feel better about my own 97 win projection.
First, the Dodgers return the same dominant offense from last year with the addition of Logan Forsythe. Corey Seager is projected to have a sophomore “slump” by contributing 4.5 WAR (vs. 7.5 from last year), and Justin Turner is expected to regress from his 5.6 WAR to 3.8; which is still an All-Star level performance. Even with this slightly lower performance, the Dodgers should produce almost the exact same numbers as last season.
When you have the best pitcher on the planet to go along with those bats, you should win quite a few games. When he’s healthy for a whole season, you’ll win even more. Clayton Kershaw will be in the Cy Young conversation for years to come, and is expected to dominate more than ever this season. Health was an issue for the whole rotation last year, so full seasons from the other arms will be a big improvement. The Dodgers will also benefit from a full season of Rich Hill, so 100 more innings of his nasty curveballs will be a bonus.
The one negative with the club is the bullpen, as there isn’t much outside of Kenley Jansen. He’s one of the best closers in the game, but others will have to step up to cover those later innings.
Win Totals Bet (94.5 Wins): Over. Hitting an over on win totals this high relies heavily on the overall health of the team, but the Dodgers have little competition in the NL West along with plenty of depth to ride out any injuries. Beating up on the Padres and Diamondbacks for almost 40 games will add a big chunk of wins, and this team has the firepower to win 100 games.
San Francisco Giants
2016: 87-75 Over/Under: 88.5 Wins Prediction: 87-75
The Giants’ even year World Series run was ended last year, and it doesn’t look like they’ll be starting an odd year streak this season. The offense didn’t add any new bats over the offseason, so expected regressions from Brandon Crawford and Brandon Belt will cause a small dip in overall production. A healthy season from Hunter Pence will also be key for this offense.
However, the Giants have an outstanding rotation anchored by Madison Bumgarner. Mad-Bum, Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija, and Matt Moore will eat up plenty of innings. This is huge, because the bullpen is horrendous. The Giants blew 30 saves last season (not including this one), although, they did add Mark Melancon over the offseason. But to get to your closer, you typically need to be winning in the ninth inning. I don’t see that happening enough for Melancon to make a big enough difference.
Win Totals Bet (88.5 Wins): Under. The rotation is one of the best in the league, but one injury to any of their main four starters will be a big blow for a team relying heavily on their success. Even if they do all stay healthy, I don’t believe they have enough on offense to get over 88 wins.
Colorado Rockies
2016: 75-87 Over/Under: 80.5 Wins Prediction: 76-86
A couple months ago, the Rockies were considered by many to be a dark horse contender. They came in with an extremely potent offense headed by Nolan Arenado, Carlos Gonzalez, Charlie Blackmon and Trevor Story. Ian Desmond was going to be a great addition at first base. I could have also argued that the Rockies were one of the unluckier teams last year, as their numbers suggest they should have won six more games and finished 81-81. Unfortunately, injuries have already devastated Colorado’s hopeful season. Desmond, David Dahl, Chris Rusin and Chad Bettis have all been sidelined.
Their collective absence will be a big blow and tack off 3-5 wins. Management is taking steps in the right direction having finally realized they should focus on acquiring groundball and strikeout pitchers. However, losing Bettis and Rusin for an extended period of time will delay the rewards for this.
Win Totals Bet (80.5 Wins): Under. It’s hard to project how the team will end up with all the current injuries, but right now I see them finishing below this level as they'll rack up plenty of losses against the Dodgers alone.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2016: 69-93 Over/Under: 77.5 Wins Prediction: 73-89
The Diamondbacks put together one of the best offenses last season, but they also happened to give up the most runs in the entire league. The offense will take a step back this season though, as they lost their best hitter from 2016 in Jean Segura. A full season from A.J. Pollock will help offset some of that, but him and slugger Paul Goldschmidt can’t do it all. After putting together a 16.4 WAR rating last season, the offense is projected to decline to 13.3 WAR in 2017.
Aside from improved health from the pitching staff, things aren’t looking much better for last year’s league worst rotation. Zach Grienke should improve off a down year and adding Taijuan Walker is a small plus, but overall don’t expect much change. Last year’s bullpen was virtually a minor-league staff at 0.6 WAR, and they’re projected to turn in a 1.5 WAR performance this season; which is still terrible.
Win Totals Bet (77.5 Wins): Under. Expectations are unreasonably high for this team. The rotation may look decent to the casual observer when paired with one of last year’s top offenses, but you can’t win many games giving up over 800 runs.
San Diego Padres
2016: 68-94 Over/Under: 66.5 Wins Prediction: 68-94
The Padres finished in last place of the National League last season with 68 wins, and I expect them to do the exact same this year. They are still in the early innings of their total rebuild, and that’s going to be very apparent. On top of that, the Padres were by far the luckiest team in the league offensively in terms of cluster luck. San Diego scored 55 more runs than you would expect from their actual production, so that should cause a significant decline from their surprising 686 runs last year.
The pitching isn’t going to be pretty either, as they signed some of the cheapest starters they could find. Clayton Richard and Trevor Cahill will be numbers two and three in the rotation, respectively, and both couldn’t even hold down spots as relievers last year. Granted, those spots were in the Cubs’ bullpen, but that’s still not a good sign for their current ability as starters. One would also expect Jered Weaver pitched himself out of a career last season, but the Padres picked him up anyways. Long story short, it’s going to be a long summer for the Padres. At least they live in San Diego.
Win Totals Bet (66.5 Wins): Pass. I project a couple wins higher, but I simply can’t trust a team with this kind of roster.
That’s all for the National League West predictions. I’ll be publishing the remaining divisions throughout the week, so be sure to check back often! You can also follow me on Twitter and subscribe to the blog to be sure to receive the latest updates!