Happy March Madness!
It’s finally here. Teams have been selected and the bracket is set. As was said by the Selection Committee chair Mark Hollis – this is the most competitive tournament we have ever seen. And the match-ups sure support this. Aside from the #8 vs. #9 seed coin flips, games like Creighton/Rhode Island, Michigan/Oklahoma State, Minnesota/Middle Tennessee State, and Dayton/Wichita State are going to be extremely hard to pick. As usual, you may be better off not knowing anything about these teams, but I’ll give it a shot anyways.
I’ll be releasing my breakdowns for each region this week along with a separate Final Four post, so be sure to check back regularly or follow me on Twitter to stay updated. Next up…
SOUTH REGION – Memphis, TN (Winner in bold)
FIRST ROUND
#1 North Carolina vs. #16 Texas Southern (Greenville, SC)
Tarheels win.
#8 Arkansas vs. #9 Seton Hall (Greenville, SC)
Remember how the SEC was simply horrible after Kentucky and Florida? Well, the next best team in that conference was Arkansas, and nothing about them impresses me. They didn’t have any big wins, and probably got in the tournament by making it to the SEC Tournament championship. However, they beat Ole Miss (by 1) and Vanderbilt (by 14) to get there before losing to Kentucky by 17. Nothing special there. Meanwhile, Seton Hall tied for third in a much tougher Big East. They nearly beat Villanova in the tournament conference semi-finals (lost by 2), and before that had won 8 of their last 10 (including wins at Butler and against Creighton at home). Arkansas can’t compare to that. The only hesitation I have is Seton Hall struggles at the line shooting just 64.2%. However, they have a huge edge on defense ranking 38th in defensive efficiency while Arkansas ranks 97th. Pirates advance to the next round.
#5 Minnesota vs. #12 Middle Tennessee State (Milwaukee, WI)
This is going to be everyone’s favorite upset pick, but this really isn’t an upset. Minnesota is by far the most over-seeded team in the tournament. How can they be a 5 seed, but Wisconsin is an 8 seed, Michigan a 7 seed, and Northwestern is an 8 seed? All three of those teams are better than the Gophers, but I guess the NCAA needed to sell tickets in Milwaukee somehow. Anyways, Middle Tennessee is the opposite and actually under-seeded after dominating Conference USA. Furthermore, they are actually better than the team that did this last year as I’m sure many remember. All you need to know is that Middle Tennessee State is a one point FAVORITE in this game, the first time a 12 seed has been favored in the first round. The Blue Raiders win this one and knock out a Big Ten team for the second year in a row.
#4 Butler vs. #13 Winthrop (Milwaukee, WI)
I could never get a read on this Butler team. They have some amazing wins against Villanova (twice), Arizona, and Cincinnati, but then had some bad losses against Indiana State, St. John’s, and Georgetown. They were quickly eliminated from the Big East Tournament by Xavier, and I’m afraid of them playing down to their competition once again. With all that though, Butler is a much better team overall. Butler is ranked 26th overall according to KenPom while Winthrop is 111th. That’s a big difference, and the Bulldogs have won at least one game in each of their past five NCAA tournament appearances. I don’t think either team makes the Sweet Sixteen anyways, so I’ll go the safe route and pick Butler.
#6 Cincinnati vs. #11 Kansas State (Sacramento, CA)
Kansas State did just enough to make the tournament, and proved they belong by beating Wake Forest in Dayton last night in their First Four match-up. They don’t play Cincinnati until Friday, but they have to make a long trek from Dayton to Sacramento for this. That’s pretty stupid planning by the NCAA, and I think this plays a factor here. These teams are close in most power ratings, but Kansas State’s solid defense (29th in defensive efficiency) can’t compete with Cincinnati’s (9th in defensive efficiency). The Bearcats will simply wear out Kansas State and do enough on offense to seal the victory.
#3 UCLA vs. #14 Kent State (Sacramento, CA)
UCLA is going to destroy Kent State. The Bruins have an explosive offense, and Kent State probably would not have made the tournament if they had not won the MAC Tournament championship. This is going to be an ugly one.
#7 Dayton vs. #10 Wichita State (Indianapolis, IN)
If you’ve read my other three prediction articles, you have already seen my rants about pairing dangerous Mid-Majors against each other in the first round to limit the chances of a VCU or George Mason type run. Well, here’s one last example. I would have loved to make the case for both of these teams to make a deep run, but I have to choose one. Dayton looked solid throughout the year, but faltered late in the season and looked terrible against Davidson in the Atlantic 10 quarterfinals. They are a veteran squad though, and should be able to recover from their two-game skid. However, Wichita State is an even more dangerous team and by far the most under-seeded team. The Shockers have won 15 straight, and all but one have been by more than 15 points. They are a very balanced team and have depth on the bench, along with being a top 20 team in both offensive and defensive efficiency. Lastly, Wichita State opened as 6 point favorites despite being the lower seeded team. The Shockers will be too much to handle for the Flyers and advance to the next round.
#2 Kentucky vs. #15 Northern Kentucky (Indianapolis, IN)
The University of Kentucky is a three-hour drive from Indianapolis, while Northern Kentucky University is only two hours away. I wonder if the Selection Committee considered that at all… The stands will be packed with fans for both teams, but Kentucky advances with ease.
SECOND ROUND
#1 North Carolina vs. #9 Seton Hall (Greenville, SC)
I’m sure there will be plenty of South Carolina and Duke fans rooting against the Tarheels on Sunday, but the Seton Hall Pirates are no match for this hyper-talented squad. North Carolina moves on to the Sweet Sixteen.
#4 Butler vs. #12 Middle Tennessee State (Milwaukee, WI)
I think one of the most interesting things about Milwaukee is that it's the only American city to elect three Socialist mayors. The next most interesting thing is Middle Tennessee State winning in the Bradley Center to advance to the Sweet Sixteen! Both teams are fairly equal in just about every statistical category, including all shooting categories, turnovers, and fouls committed. However, Middle Tennessee has a slight edge in rebounding and shooting defense. Middle Tennessee has also won 10 in a row and 20 of their last 21 games, so I have to go with the hotter team against an inconsistent Butler.
#3 UCLA vs. #6 Cincinnati (Sacramento, CA)
This is certainly a clash of styles, as UCLA’s third best offense goes up against Cincinnati’s ninth best defense. Not only that, but the Bruins play at the 14th fastest pace in the country while the Bearcats are one of the slowest teams. As good as I think the Cincinnati defense is, UCLA’s offense is going to take control of this game and the Bearcats won’t be able to keep up. Led by hyper-talented freshman Lonzo Ball and TJ Leaf, along having plenty of fan support, I see the Bruins winning this one.
#2 Kentucky vs. #10 Wichita State (Indianapolis, IN)
These teams met in the tournament in 2014 when eighth seeded Kentucky “upset” #1 seed Wichita State. The Shockers have been on an incredible run, but they haven’t played a truly talented team since December. Of course, Kentucky hasn’t faced much competition either playing in the SEC, but they’ve won 11 in a row against better teams overall. Wichita State has great depth, but Kentucky’s talent will overwhelm them. Wildcats win this one.
SWEET SIXTEEN (Regional Semi-Finals)
#1 North Carolina vs. #12 Middle Tennessee State (Memphis, TN)
The Blue Raiders magical run ends in Memphis. North Carolina is way too talented to lose this one and can attack from all sides. Justin Jackson is an outstanding perimeter player, while Kennedy Meeks and Isaiah Hicks will dominate the paint. Middle Tennessee State could keep it close, but in the end the Tarheels make it through to the next round.
#2 Kentucky vs. #3 UCLA (Memphis, TN)
This is going to be one hell of a game, but ultimately Kentucky will prevail. While UCLA solely relies on their offense (they rank 82nd in defensive efficiency), the Wildcats are extremely strong on both sides of the ball. Kentucky loves to utilize their athleticism in transition and at a high tempo, which pairs perfectly with UCLA as the Bruins play at almost the exact same pace. This will be an extremely high scoring game, but Kentucky will score just enough to make it to the Elite Eight.
ELITE EIGHT (Regional Finals)
#1 North Carolina vs. #2 Kentucky (Memphis, TN)
These two met on December 17 for the CBS Sports Classic in Las Vegas, with North Carolina winning 103-100. No, it didn’t go to overtime; they scored 203 points in 40 minutes of play. I don’t expect THAT many points this time around, but it will still be pretty high. For me, this game comes down to each team’s star player, their guard play, and momentum. The stars would be Malik Monk for Kentucky and Justin Jackson for North Carolina. Both are having outstanding seasons, but Monk has leaped to another level and gets the edge. For guards, it’s Joel Berry and Theo Pinson for UNC, De’Andre Fox and Monk for UK. The Tarheels success relies heavily on Berry due to little backcourt depth after Kenny Williams’ season-ending injury, and he has not been consistent. UNC is also 1-3 when Berry commits 4 fouls or more, so it doesn’t happen often, but it did occur in their ACC semi-final loss to Duke recently. He also fouled out of the Tar Heels’ loss against Kentucky in Las Vegas. I’m not saying it will happen again, but I’m sure it’s on John Calipari’s mind.
As for Kentucky’s guards, I already mentioned Malik Monk is turning into a superstar. De’Andre Fox has also played great down the stretch, and this talented freshman duo certainly has the edge over Berry and Pinson. Lastly, Kentucky definitely has momentum on their side. They have won 11 straight and are peaking at just the right time. Meanwhile, North Carolina has won just 8 of their last 12; although they did play tougher competition. I still give the advantage to Kentucky, as a winning streak going into the tournament will boost this young team’s confidence even more.